Back to School Shopping Season Already Started – Here’s How to Profit

Back-to-school shopping is already underway, and that could create a major opportunity for investors looking to profit from the 2026 retail season. According to the National Retail Federation, 62% of back-to-school shoppers had already started shopping by early July, showing just how early consumers are getting a head start this year. At the same time, spending is expected to reach record levels, with families of K-12 students projected to spend $43.3 billion and college students and their families expected to spend another $103.5 billion. 

With consumers searching for deals on everything from school supplies and clothing to electronics, groceries and dorm essentials, retailers and e-commerce companies could be positioned for a strong seasonal boost. For investors, the back-to-school season could offer more than just a shopping opportunity—it could also create potential catalysts for retail stocks and ETFs that are positioned to benefit from increased consumer spending. Here are three names worth watching as the 2026 back-to-school season gets into full swing.

Walmart Could Be a Back to School Winner

Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) continues to show why it’s a solid investment.

Up about 125% over the last few years, it could push even higher, as the 2026-2027 school season gets ready to kick off in just weeks.  

Plus, Walmart is offering some of its lowest back-to-school prices in years, which could attract more customers buying school supplies, clothes, electronics, and groceries. The company is also seeing strong growth in its online sales and advertising business. With consumers focused on saving money, Walmart’s low prices and convenient shopping options could help it gain more customers and sales during the busy back-to-school season.

We also have to consider that the WMT stock pushes higher around this time of year, too.

• At the start of August 2024, the WMT stock rallied from about $68 to a December high of $94.
• At the start of August 2025, the WMT stock rallied from about $97 to $116 by December.
• Nowadays, WMT is a bit oversold heading into the start of the school season.

We’re looking for a similar bounce this year, too.

Target’s Seasonal Bounce Could Be Worth Watchin

Target (NYSE: TGT) also has a history of turning higher around back to school season.

In 2025, it didn’t do so hot, running a few dollars higher before crashing. However…

• From an August 2024 low of about $141, TGT ran to a high of $157.52. 
• From an August 2023 low of about $127, it did pull back initially before exploding to a high of about $170.62.  
• From its August 2022 low of about $150, TGT hit a high of $162.

One ETF to Ride the E-Commerce Shopping Surge

You can also trade an ETF on the back to school theme with the: ProShares Online Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: ONLN)

Online shopping is one of the most popular forms of shopping right now, which is beneficial for the ONLN ETF because it focuses on companies that are positioned to benefit from the continued growth of e-commerce. As more consumers choose to shop online for convenience, lower prices, and a wider selection of products, these companies could continue to see strong demand.

With an expense ratio of 0.58%, the ONLN ETF also pays out a quarterly dividend, giving investors an additional source of potential income. Most recently, it paid a dividend of just over four cents per share, which was payable on June 30. Before that, it paid out just over six cents per share on March 31.

The ONLN ETF currently holds 22 stocks, giving investors exposure to a variety of major companies in the online retail industry. Some of its top holdings include Amazon.com, eBay, Coupang, Wayfair, and Etsy.

By investing in ONLN, investors can gain exposure to several well-known e-commerce companies through a single ETF, rather than choosing individual stocks. This can make it a strong option for investors who believe online shopping will continue to grow over the long term.

The Bottom Line for Retail Investors

Walmart looks especially interesting thanks to its low prices and strong online business, while Target could benefit if it follows some of the seasonal strength it has shown in previous years. For investors who want broader exposure to the growth of online shopping, the ONLN ETF offers another way to play the trend without having to pick just one company.