Airline earnings are back in focus as major carriers prepare to report first-quarter results, and one theme is already clear: strong demand isn’t translating into stronger profits.
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While demand has been strong, rising costs – particularly with fuel – are putting pressure on profits. After all, in an industry where fuel can account for about a quarter of operating costs, even a small increase in the cost of fuel can have a substantial impact on margins.
Delta Air Lines set the tone earlier this month, highlighting resilient travel demand. However, the company also warned that rising fuel costs are starting to weigh heavily on margins. The company expects a $2 billion surge in fuel expenses through June, including a $400 million hit in March alone. CEO Ed Bastian also struck a cautious tone on the 2026 outlook.
That same dynamic is likely to show up when American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL), and JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ: JBLU) over the next few days.
American Airlines Earnings Preview: Strong Demand Meets Rising Fuel Costs
American Airlines is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on April 23.
The company recently raised its revenue outlook, now expecting growth of more than 10%, up from prior guidance of 7% to 10%, driven by stronger-than-expected demand. However, that strength is offset by costs—particularly fuel costs.
American expects a $400 million hit to first-quarter expenses due to higher jet fuel prices, tied in part to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic. UBS recently raised its price target on AAL to $16 from $14 with a Buy rating, citing healthy demand trends and improving revenue per available seat mile. Among 23 analysts covering the stock, sentiment is mixed but leans positive.
Looking ahead, a potential easing of geopolitical tensions—and fuel prices—could act as a meaningful near-term catalyst.
United Airlines Earnings Preview: Premium Demand in Focus
United Airlines reports on April 21, and investors will be watching closely for signals on both demand and cost pressures heading into the peak summer travel season.
Analysts expect earnings per share in the range of $1.08 to $1.15 on approximately $14.3 billion in revenue. Strength in premium seating and long-haul international travel has been a key driver of recent performance.
But like its peers, United isn’t immune to rising fuel costs, which are expected to weigh on margins and potentially impact forward guidance.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be focused on management commentary around capacity growth, pricing power, and whether demand can remain resilient in a more uncertain macro environment.
JetBlue Earnings Preview: Turnaround Progress Takes Center Stage
JetBlue Airways will report first-quarter earnings on April 28. The company is expected to post a loss of approximately $0.72 per share on revenue of about $2.24 billion, reflecting ongoing profitability challenges.
As a result, the focus will be less on the quarter itself and more on progress in JetBlue’s turnaround strategy.
Recent analyst upgrades suggest some growing confidence. Seaport Research upgraded JBLU to Buy with an $8 price target, while Barclays raised its rating to Equal Weight and increased its target to $7 from $4. Both firms pointed to improving expectations around the company’s “Jet Forward” plan, which aims to deliver $800 million to $900 million in EBITDA by 2027.
The Bottom Line on Airline Earnings
The setup for this round of airline earnings is relatively straightforward: demand remains strong, but costs—especially fuel—are doing the damage.
That creates a challenging near-term backdrop for airline stocks. Even if revenue comes in strong, profitability and forward guidance may disappoint.
For investors, that means focusing less on headline beats and more on margins, cost trends, and management outlooks for the rest of 2026.
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