Indeed, the company also benefited from indirect tailwinds from the work-from-home revolution. With companies migrating practically overnight to remote operations, multiple functionalities — particularly the fitness center — suffered a radical paradigm shift. Naturally, the dramatic changes benefited Peloton, with the company’s exercise bikes allowing workers to conveniently meet their health and exercise goals.

However, as society began normalizing, PTON stock predictably suffered a sharply negative rerating. Combined with rising economic pressures, along with companies either laying off staff or calling them back to the office, home exercise equipment lost much of its charm. This led to PTON stock suffering a trailing-five-year loss of almost 96%.

Today, shares can be had for less than seven bucks — but it’s also possible that the smart money could be sensing a potential upside opportunity. With its fiscal second-quarter earnings report coming up next month, Peloton just might have a pleasant surprise in store for bullish speculators.

Peloton Looks to Shake Off Its Cobwebs

For the upcoming print, Wall Street expects Peloton to post a loss per share of 5 cents on revenue of $675.78 million. In fiscal Q2 of last year, the company posted a loss of 24 cents on sales of $673.9 million. Results were mixed, with the red ink on the bottom line coming in worse than the expected 20-cent loss, though top-line growth beat the consensus target of $652.69 million.

Overall, the presentation was also mixed. Management showcased significant innovations, particularly with new product releases that integrated artificial intelligence. In addition, the company delivered revenue growth and demonstrated operational discipline. Unfortunately, a large number of product recalls, along with erosion in subscription figures, clouded the narrative.

To be fair, PTON stock did pop higher immediately following the results, likely due to the bump up in sales amid a challenging economic backdrop. However, the lift in equity value was short-lived, with PTON falling into a downtrend that has only recently been mitigated.

Still, it may be that the security has fallen too far — beyond what the fundamentals reasonably justify. Yes, the product recalls were the most problematic headwind of the most recent earnings disclosure. However, it’s an addressable issue. What may be more emblematic of Peloton’s future performance is the product innovation and associated revenue growth.

If people don’t like what a company is selling, that would be the more devastating issue. By contrast, Peloton just proved that the business is very much relevant — and that could be the saving grace for PTON stock.

PTON Stock Options Flow May Offer Good Tidings

One of the biggest clues that something special could be brewing for PTON stock comes from the options market, specifically a segment known as options flow. True, derivatives are derivatives, but when Wall Street talks about flow, they’re often referring to the context of big block transactions — the kind that generally only institutional investors engage in.

Stated differently, while a standard options screener would look at all transactions — which is a real mess — options flow filters for only the biggest trades. By monitoring these high-level transactions across a period of time, retail investors can get a better idea of how the smart money may be positioning itself.

As it turns out, on a relative basis, the alpha dogs have been piling into PTON stock.

Although there have been many large transactions (again, on a relative basis), the Jan. 13 session stood out the most. On that day, net trade sentiment stood at $812,600 against a total dollar volume of $1.31 million. Moreover, the trade involved the purchase of $10 calls expiring in January 2027, which suggests robust bullishness over the next year.

It’s also worth pointing out that the delta imbalance on that session stood at roughly $400,000, which suggests an overall positive-leaning bias among market participants. Granted, you don’t want to take every detail of the options market as gospel because true intentions can be disguised within complex multi-leg transactions.

Nevertheless, I believe it’s significant that the smart money has apparently turned optimistic amid a massive five-year implosion of PTON stock.

Structure (Usually) Doesn’t Lie

Using a combination of the Black-Scholes model and implied volatility (IV), various “expected move” calculators project a wide dispersion for PTON stock. For the Feb. 20 expiration date, market makers are anticipating a 14.25% swing in either direction, taking PTON to a possible low of $5.75 to a high of $7.67.

However, the challenge of using Black-Scholes-derived pricing forecasts is that the model represents a first-order analysis. It provides a “clean” framework without the messy and potentially distortive data enhancements of feedback loops, regime shifts and state evolution, among other elements.

This blank template allows for quick and scalable reference points for all optionable securities. Unfortunately, by mathematical necessity, it also means that Black-Scholes will never be able to consistently account for the nuances of individual securities.

To get a better idea of how PTON stock may respond in context, we need to conduct a second-order analysis, such as one using the Markov property. Essentially, the Markovian framework asserts that what happens tomorrow is largely dependent on what happens today.

In the case of Peloton stock, “today” may be defined as the trailing 10-week performance, where PTON printed only four up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. When this 4-6-D sequence flashes, “tomorrow” — defined as the next 10 weeks — will likely see PTON range between approximately $6 and $8 (assuming a spot price of $6.70). Probability density will likely peak at $6.75, suggesting a slight bullish bias.

Here’s the thing. Under aggregate conditions, PTON stock typically suffers from a decidedly negative bias. Right now, the statistical data suggests that, following an extended downside, the more likely response moving forward is a push higher. Not only that, options flow data supports the notion of bullish speculation.

For the risk taker, the 7/8 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20 might not be the worst idea, at least in terms of gambling. For a net debit of only $37, traders will be hoping for PTON stock to rise through the $8 strike price at expiration. If it does, the maximum profit would be $63, a payout of over 170%.

In the next few weeks, there’s Thanksgiving, where we eat until we pass out from too much tryptophan. Then, the December holidays increase our calorie consumption. And before you know it, you’ll be watching the ball drop.

And as that’s happening, as millions of us do, we promise next year will be different.

Around this time of year, about 90% of us, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine, make a resolution to lose weight, diet, and exercise more. As the popularity of GLP-1 drugs shows, millions of us are worrying about our expanding waistlines and promising ourselves that next year will be different. 

But this isn’t an article about the obesity epidemic or a search for biotechnology stocks. For many people, weight loss comes from joining Weight Watchers or Medifast.  We may even join a gym. And that’s a good place to start our hunt for year-end stocks to buy.

Year-End Stocks: Planet Fitness

Planet Fitness (NYSE: PLNT) is an almost too-obvious example in the category of year-end stocks.  For the last several years, PLNT stock tends to take off around the holidays. We saw that pattern in late 2020, in late 2021, in late 2022, and again in 2023 and 2024. We’re seeing it happen again now because of a revenue beat.

Specifically, revenue of $330.3 million, up 13% year over year, beat by $6.87 million. For 2025, PLNT expects revenue to grow 11% from prior estimates of 10%. It expects adjusted EBITDA to increase 12% from prior estimates of 10%. And it expects adjusted net income to jump 13% to 14% from a prior range of 8% to 9%.

Analysts have taken notice and have started to increase their price targets for PLNT stock. One of the most bullish targets comes from Morgan Stanley, which gives the stock a $125 price target. That’s nearly $10 higher than the consensus target of $116.54.

Year-End Stocks: Peloton Interactive 

Another hot entry in the category of year-end stocks to buy is Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ: PTON). Peloton stock is down about 14% in 2025 as of this writing. However, it’s up about 50% since getting obliterated in the “Liberation Day” tariff sell-off.

And PTON’s recovery from its April low is more than just a technical anomaly. The stock has managed to gain a bull at Goldman Sachs, which views PTON stock as a buy opportunity with an $11.50 price target. That’s above the consensus price of $9.95, which is by itself 32% above the PTON stock price as of this writing.

To reignite sales growth, Peloton is revamping its equipment, adding a new commercial unit, and raising subscription prices. Morgan Stanley believes that by raising prices, the company could rake in an additional $180 million in EBITDA. 

PTON is also starting to see positive changes on its balance sheet, producing significant free cash flow of $324 million. Plus, PTON just cut its net debt by 43%, which is a healthy sign of a turnaround.

The company also expects to see further improvements in profits, gross margins, and its free cash flow numbers moving forward.

Year-End Stocks: Global X Health Tech ETF

While Planet Fitness and Peloton may set up as solid swing trades, you may be interested in year-end stocks that you can own for the long term. That could lead you to healthcare technology stocks, and that may mean looking at exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The Global X HealthTech ETF (NASDAQ: HEAL) is an attractive option for investors who want to go this route. The fund targets companies involved in AI-enabled drug discovery, smart medical devices, tech-enabled consumer healthcare, and healthcare analytics and software solutions. Some of its 40 holdings include Tempus AI, Hims & Hers Health, Doximity, ResMed, and iRhythm Technologies.

The HEAL ETF is flat in 2025 and is down sharply since it debuted in late 2020. The risk is that several stocks in the fund may face FDA scrutiny over GLP-1 drugs. However, the HEAL stock price on November 14 may be confirming a level of support near its 52-week low.

The fund has an attractive expense ratio of around 0.50%.