Gold has come under pressure recently, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, and reduced expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, there are still plenty of reasons for investors to remain bullish on the metal. For one, central banks are still adding gold to their reserves.

Central Bank Buying and De-Dollarization Support a Long-Term Bull Case

In fact, as the World Gold Council noted, “Central banks bought a net 27t in February, with activity driven by Poland (20t), a marked rebound after a lull in January. Uzbekistan entered its fifth consecutive month of net buying (8t), followed by Kazakhstan (8t), Czech Republic(2t), Malaysia (2t), China (1t) and Cambodia (1t).”

Another bullish factor is the long-term price outlook. Deutsche Bank has suggested gold could reach $8,000 over the next five years, as central banks increasingly prioritize gold over the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset. According to International Business Times, that outlook aligns with the broader de-dollarization trade, as confidence in U.S. assets continues to weaken.

Gold ETFs Offer a Diversified, Lower-Cost Way to Gain Exposure

That said, investors may want to keep an eye on the long side of gold while ignoring market noise. 

While investors can buy gold stocks, such as Barrick (NYSE: B), Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM), or Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE: FNV), those looking for safe diversification may want to consider gold ETFs.

Here are a few you may want to consider.

GDX: Large-Cap Gold Miners With Dividend Income Potential

One of the best ways to diversify at less cost is with gold ETFs, such as the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX).  Not only can you gain access to some of the biggest gold stocks in the world, but you can also do so at less cost.  

With an expense ratio of 0.51%, the ETF holds positions in Newmont Corp., Barrick Gold, Franco-Nevada, Agnico Eagle Mines, Gold Fields, and Wheaton Precious Metals, to name a few.

The ETF also pays an annual dividend.  In December 2025, it paid a dividend of just over 63 cents a share. In December 2024, it paid a dividend of just over 40 cents per share. In December 2023, it paid a dividend of just over 50 cents per share.

Even better, shares of mining stocks often outperform the price of gold. That’s because higher gold prices can result in increased profit margins and free cash flow for gold miners.  In addition, top gold miners often have limited exposure to riskier mining projects.

SGDJ: Targeting High-Upside Junior Gold Miners

With an expense ratio of 0.5%, the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SGDJ) seeks investment results that correspond (before fees and expenses) generally to the performance of its underlying index, the Solactive Junior Gold Miners Custom Factors Index. The Index aims to track the performance of small-cap gold companies whose stocks are listed on regulated exchanges.  

Some of its top holdings include Lundin Gold Inc., Seabridge Gold, Equinox Gold, Victoria Gold, Westgold Resources, Osisko Mining, K92 Mining Inc., Novagold Resources, Regis Resources, New Gold Inc., Sabina Gold & Silver, Argonaut Gold, Centerra Gold, Coeur Mining, Skeena Resources, and K92 Mining, to name a few.

GOEX: Pure-Play Exposure to Gold Exploration Companies

With an expense ratio of 0.65%, the Global X Gold Explorers ETF (NYSEARCA: GOEX) invests in companies involved with gold deposit exploration. 

Some of its top 50 holdings include Coeur Mining, Lundin Gold, Hecla Mining, New Gold Inc., SSR Mining, and Alamos Gold. GOEX also pays a semi-annual dividend. Its last dividend of just over $1.67 per share was paid out on December 30, 2025. 

Gold’s Consolidation May Be Setting Up the Next Move Higher

At the end of the day, gold’s story hasn’t really changed—it just goes through cycles of excitement and hesitation. Whether this turns into the next big move higher or just more sideways action will depend on how things like interest rates and global tensions actually play out—not just what analysts predict.

In fact, according to UBS analysts, the metal could rally to $6,200 by mid-year. There are several reasons for this, including geopolitical tensions, two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by September, and further central bank buying. 

As noted by GoldSilver.com, “After hitting highs above $5,000 earlier this year, gold has corrected to around $4,400. UBS analysts see this as consistent with a pattern that preceded last year’s historic 65% surge. Sustained consolidation has historically preceded significant upward moves in gold. The structural drivers, in UBS’s view, remain intact.”

While investors can buy gold stocks, such as Barrick Mining (NYSE: B), Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM), or Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE: FNV), those looking for safe diversification may want to consider gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Here are a few you may want to consider.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF

One of the best ways to diversify at less cost is with an ETF, such as the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX).  Not only can you gain access to some of the biggest gold stocks in the world, but you can also do so at less cost.  

With an expense ratio of 0.51%, the ETF holds positions in Newmont Corp., Barrick Gold, Franco-Nevada, Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI), and Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE: WPM) to name a few.

The ETF also pays an annual dividend.  In December 2025, it paid a dividend of just over 63 cents a share. In December 2024, it paid a dividend of just over 40 cents per share. In December 2023, it paid a dividend of just over 50 cents per share.

Even better, shares of mining stocks often outperform the price of gold. That’s because higher gold prices can result in increased profit margins and free cash flow for gold miners.  In addition, top gold miners often have limited exposure to riskier mining projects.

Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF

With an expense ratio of 0.5%, the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: SGDJ) seeks investment results that correspond (before fees and expenses) generally to the performance of its underlying index, the Solactive Junior Gold Miners Custom Factors Index. The Index aims to track the performance of small-cap gold companies with stocks that are listed on regulated exchanges.  

Some of its top holdings include Lundin Gold Inc., Seabridge Gold, Equinox Gold, Victoria Gold, Westgold Resources, Osisko Mining, K92 Mining Inc., Novagold Resources, Regis Resources, New Gold Inc., Sabina Gold & Silver, Argonaut Gold, Centerra Gold, Coeur Mining, Skeena Resources, and K92 Mining to name a few.

Global X Gold Explorers ETF

With an expense ratio of 0.65%, the Global X Gold Explorers ETF (NYSEARCA: GOEX) invests in companies involved with gold deposit exploration. 

Some of its top 50 holdings include Coeur Mining, Lundin Gold, Hecla Mining, New Gold Inc., SSR Mining, and Alamos Gold. GOEX also pays a semi-annual dividend. Its last dividend of just over $1.67 per share was paid out on December 30, 2025. 

Gold Miners ETFs Signal Opportunity as Gold Prepares for Next Leg Higher

At the end of the day, gold’s story hasn’t really changed—it just goes through cycles of excitement and hesitation. Whether this turns into the next big move higher or just more sideways action will depend on how things such as interest rates and global tensions actually play out—not just what analysts predict.

And for investors, that message is loud and clear: copper is no longer just an industrial metal — it is a strategic asset. Used in everything from electric vehicles and data centers to power grids, renewable energy systems, and military hardware, copper demand is surging at a pace few commodities can match. At the same time, new supply is struggling to keep up.

Copper prices have surged, and many analysts believe this move could be just the beginning of a longer-term bull market. One of the biggest drivers behind this surge is the explosive growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure across the United States.

Massive AI data centers require extraordinary amounts of copper for power distribution, cabling, transformers, circuit boards, and cooling systems. According to BHP, a study of Microsoft Corp.’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) $500 million data center facility in Chicago found it used 2,177 tonnes of copper — equivalent to about 27 tonnes of copper for every megawatt (MW) of applied power.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), hyperscale data centers typically have power demand of 100 MW or more, with annual electricity consumption equivalent to that used by roughly 350,000 to 400,000 electric cars. As more hyperscale facilities are built to support cloud computing and AI workloads, copper demand accelerates even faster.

Looking further out, the numbers become staggering. BHP estimates that copper used in data centers globally could grow sixfold by 2050, rising from around half a million tonnes today to several million tonnes annually. At the same time, global electricity consumption from data centers could increase from roughly 2% of total demand today to as much as 9% by mid-century.

All of this puts extraordinary pressure on an already strained copper supply chain. New copper mines take years — often more than a decade — to permit, finance, and develop. Ore grades at many existing mines are declining, meaning producers must process more material just to maintain output. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks and resource nationalism in key producing countries add further uncertainty.

Making things worse, the United States still relies heavily on foreign sources for refined copper and copper concentrates. That dependence is a major reason why copper has now been elevated to a national security concern.

In response, policymakers are beginning to treat copper like they already treat semiconductors and rare earths — as a material that underpins both energy security and economic competitiveness. The U.S. Department of Energy has formally added copper to its Critical Materials List, recognizing that it faces a high risk of supply disruption while playing an essential role in energy technologies.

Inclusion as a critical material opens the door to targeted incentives, loan guarantees, and potentially streamlined permitting for projects that expand domestic mining, processing, and recycling capacity. At the same time, Washington is moving to align critical mineral frameworks across agencies, and draft updates to the U.S. Geological Survey’s critical minerals list now include copper — a shift that could unlock even broader federal support over time.

On the industry side, major producers are positioning themselves to capitalize on this policy tailwind. Companies such as Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) are evaluating multi‑billion‑dollar expansion projects at existing operations in Arizona, with potential capacity additions that could materially lift U.S. copper output later this decade.

Meanwhile, new exploration and brownfield programs across states like Arizona, Utah, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico underscore a renewed focus on rebuilding a domestic copper base. For investors, this convergence of policy support, supply constraints, and demand growth strengthens the case that copper’s rerating may have a long way to run.

For investors, this creates a powerful long-term opportunity in related ETFs such as:

Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)

The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: COPX) offers targeted exposure to companies involved in copper mining around the world. With an expense ratio of 0.65%, COPX holds about 40 copper-related companies, including Lundin Mining (OTCMKTS: LUNMF), Glencore (OTCMKTS: GLNCY), Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO), BHP Group (NYSE: BHP), Freeport-McMoRan, Ero Copper (NYSE: ERO), and Taseko Mines (NYSE: TGB).

COPX provides investors with direct leverage to rising copper prices while spreading risk across multiple producers and jurisdictions.

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP)

Another diversified option is the iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NYSEARCA: ICOP). With an expense ratio of 0.47%, ICOP offers exposure not only to copper miners, but also to companies producing other key industrial metals. Its holdings include Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM), Teck Resources (NYSE: TECK), along with BHP Group (NYSE: BHP), Freeport-McMoRan, and Lundin Mining (OTCMKTS: LUNMF).

The bottom line: copper is entering a new era of strategic importance. With demand exploding from electrification, AI infrastructure, and grid expansion — and supply struggling to respond — the stage is set for a potentially powerful multi-year bull market.

The Case for Staying Early

Copper is quietly becoming one of the defining bottlenecks of the AI and electrification era, and the market is only starting to price that in. With structural demand from data centers, EVs, and grid upgrades colliding with slow, capital‑intensive supply growth, every marginal tonne is becoming more valuable. For investors, owning quality copper miners and targeted ETFs now is essentially a call option on a long-duration supply squeeze in a metal the modern economy cannot function without.

So far, the performance has been undeniable. Last Friday, before the long weekend, NEM stock popped up 6.5%. Since the beginning of January, the security has gained just under 26%. Over the past 52 weeks, the world’s largest gold mining corporation saw its equity rise by almost 165%. Nevertheless, this dramatic ascent raises at least near-term sustainability concerns.

Essentially, the mean reversion concept can also work against the bulls. After enjoying so many positive performances, the latest news has to be that much more robust to justify a continuation of the bull trend. As such, there’s a serious risk that, while the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report — scheduled for release on Feb. 19 — will likely generate a beat, it may not be enough to impress Wall Street.

Just looking at the stats, analysts expect Newmont to post earnings per share of $1.94 on revenue of $6.05 billion. In the year-ago quarter, the gold miner posted EPS of $1.40 on revenue of $5.65 billion, beating the consensus target of $1.03 and $5.32 billion, respectively. Notably, the Q4 2025 report started the streak of four consecutive top-and-bottom-line beats.

Just based on current momentum, I don’t anticipate the fifth time around breaking the streak. For me, the question is whether the magnitude of the beat will be significant enough. Frankly, I’m not too sure.

Volatility Skew Presents a Pensive Case for NEM Stock

One of the most important first-order (observational) indicators that retail traders should consider for optionable securities is volatility skew, primarily for the reason that it can provide clues regarding smart money positioning. Definitionally, volatility skew is a screener that identifies implied volatility (IV) — or a stock’s potential kinetic output — across the strike price spectrum of a given options chain.

For the Feb. 20 expiration date (a day after Newmont’s earnings), the overall posture of the skew is relatively calm and unremarkable. This assessment largely comes down to how flat the put and call IV curvature is in the strikes near the spot price. Further, the lack of discrepancy or spread between puts and calls suggests a lack of urgency in hedging against NEM stock.

Frankly, that’s not surprising because of the strong performance of the gold miner. Between the emotions of fear and greed, the market clearly favors the latter. Still, what is interesting is the dynamic witnessed in the skew’s left wing.

Basically, put IV curves upward as the strike price decreases, suggesting a prioritization for far out-the-money (OTM) puts. Also, notice that relative to the spread in other areas of the skew, the discrepancy between the put IV up top and the call IV at the bottom is conspicuous. In this case, we may have a mild but distinct emphasis on protecting against downside tail risk.

Most likely, I will get criticized by options traders for perhaps reading too much into the left-wing dynamics. However, I find it interesting that while the IV spread between calls and puts is super tight from $80 and above, from around $75 and below, the spread noticeably widens.

It’s not the end of the world, but it’s also very much worth monitoring.

Identifying the Trading Parameters of Newmont Stock

While we now have a working understanding of smart money sentiment, we still need to figure out how this translates into actual price outcomes. For that, we may turn to the Black-Scholes-derived expected move calculator. Wall Street’s standard mechanism for pricing options projects that for the Feb. 20 expiration date, Newmont stock may land between $116.69 and 134.71.

Where does this dispersion come from? Black-Scholes assumes a world where stock market returns are lognormally distributed. Under this framework, the above range represents where Newmont stock may symmetrically land one standard deviation away from spot (while accounting for volatility and days to expiration).

Mathematically, the model asserts that in 68% of cases, we would expect Newmont stock to trade somewhere within the prescribed range at the end of the week. That’s a reasonable assumption because it would take an extraordinary catalyst to drive a security beyond one standard deviation from spot. Still, we’re also talking about a hefty peak-to-trough range of over 15%.

Put another way, after Newmont’s Q4 earnings, NEM stock can move up 7.17% or move down 7.17%. And at this stage, we’ve really arrived at the maximum utility of first-order analyses. In order to extract any more insight, we would need to conduct a second-order analysis, which would condition the observed data on empirical anchors.

Conceptually, we are faced with the classic search-and-rescue (SAR) conundrum. Imagine that NEM stock symbolizes a lone shipwrecked survivor. Black-Scholes has identified a distress signal that went out somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, and it has also established a realistic search radius. Unfortunately, given our limited resources, we cannot cover the entire search area.

Where does this leave us? There’s really only one solution, and that is to use probabilistic math. It’s here where the Markov property comes into frame.

Narrowing the Probability Space

Under Markov, the future state of a system depends entirely on the present state. Colloquially, forward probabilities should not be calculated independently but should be assessed in context. Using the SAR analogy above, different ocean currents — such as choppy waves versus calm waters — will likely affect where a shipwrecked survivor is likely to drift.

Here’s how the Markov property is relevant to Newmont stock. In the past 10 weeks, NEM stock printed nine up weeks, leading to an overall upward slope. There’s nothing special about this sequence, per se. However, this quantitative signal represents a specific type of ocean current. As such, survivors caught in these waters will likely drift differently compared to any other current.

To really emphasize the point, Newmont stock printed nine up weeks in the last 10 weeks. That means to justify another set of up weeks requires a truly special catalyst — much more than gold being awesome. Such low-hanging fruit has already been plucked and is already baked into NEM stock.

Using enumerative induction and Bayesian-inspired inference, we can estimate where the stock is likely to drift based on prior manifestations of the 9-1-U sequence. Basically, we would take the median pathway associated with the quant signal and apply it to the current spot price.

When we do that, the resultant distribution is quite negative, with prices expected to land between $114 and $128 over the next 10 weeks. Under aggregate conditions, we would anticipate the forward 10-week range to land between $124 and $133.

If Newmont doesn’t impress in Q4, I wouldn’t be surprised to see NEM stock drift between $118 and $123, roughly the bottom-third level of the Black-Scholes dispersion.

Of course, we’re talking about a highly risky trade. But if you want to take it, the 123/120 bear put spread expiring Feb. 20 is available. If NEM stock falls through the $120 strike at expiration, the maximum payout would be almost 110%. Breakeven lands at $121.57, improving the trade’s probabilistic credibility.

Here’s a surprise. They may not be looking at the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. In fact, there’s some evidence that the “smart money” is looking for opportunities to get in front of an end-of-the-year rally.  

For that to happen, it will mean a broadening of the market beyond the handful of tech stocks that have carried the market higher. In fact, I have three ideas for you that don’t involve the tech sector at all. Yet, each of these stocks has one or more catalysts from the government reopening that could make buying these savvy stocks a very profitable move.  

Savvy Stocks to Buy #1: Delta Air Lines 

You can’t say for sure, but it’s likely that the cancellation of flights across the country was a key catalyst to end the government shutdown. Analysts remind travelers that the government reopening won’t be a quick fix to reset air traffic. However, it’s likely that things will be back to normal by the December holiday crunch. 

That makes Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) the first on this list of savvy stocks. In its third-quarter earnings report in October, Delta reported an overall increase in domestic travel of 5%, and an 8% increase in business travel in particular. The latter is a key metric that other airlines are still struggling with.  

DAL stock is flat in the 30 days ending November 10, but is still down about 4.3% in 2025. That puts it at a discount of more than 23% to its consensus price target of $71.54. And at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 8.25x, DAL stock is trading at a discount to its historical average. 

Like many airlines, Delta is still working through a considerable amount of debt of around $22 billion. That resulted in the airline paying $701 million in interest expense alone in the last 12 months. However, since the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates, there is the possibility for Delta to refinance a portion of that debt at more favorable terms.  

Savvy Stocks to Buy #2: Newmont Corp.  

Gold continues to be one of the best trades in 2025 and Newmont Corp. (NYSE: NEM) is a best-in-class mining stock with plenty of upside.  

The spot price of gold took a much-needed breather in the last two weeks, falling under $4,000. But this is likely to be just a pause in a bullish pattern that is supported by the government reopening. Several conditions exist to suggest gold will continue to rise: 

• The federal government is still running annual deficits that come in at around 7% of GDP.  

• The Federal Reserve is at the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle that is likely to accelerate if the labor market remains soft or gets worse. 

• Central banks continue to buy gold at historic levels as part of the debasement trade against the U.S. dollar. 

Newmont stock dropped more than 20% from its high in mid-October. But it’s been moving steadily higher. At around $87 per share as of this writing, it’s right around its consensus price target. But several analysts have put the price of NEM stock at over $100, with Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) coming in at $115. 

At around 13x earnings, NEM stock is expensive compared to its historic average. But this isn’t an ordinary time. Earnings are expected to jump over 10% in the next 12 months, which would support a premium for the stock.  

Savvy Stocks to Buy #3: Walmart 

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is last, but certainly not least on this list of savvy stocks to buy when the government reopens. The company has bucked the bearish sentiment that many retailers have noted. Its year-over-year numbers are flat, but for many retailers in 2025, that’s a win.  

Walmart has noted that the lower-income consumer, which is its core market, is under pressure. However, the company has also seen an increase in traffic from higher net worth consumers who are shopping at Walmart to make their discretionary dollars go further.  

That’s not likely to change as inflation is expected to remain around its current level of 3%, at best, and possibly move higher as the impact of interest rate cuts works its way through the economy. Simply put, Walmart sells what consumers need, not what they want.  

That makes the stock a buy even at a P/E ratio of around 38x, which is a premium to its historic average. WMT stock dipped about 10% from its 52-week high in October. But all signs point to the stock moving beyond that level, and possibly very quickly.