As a result, home improvement retailers typically experience a meaningful acceleration in both foot traffic and ticket size during this period. According to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, home improvement spending in the United States is projected to reach a record $522 billion by the end of the year, up from $509 billion in 2025. 

Why Weakness in Home Improvement Stocks May Be a Buying Opportunity

Despite this predictable demand cycle, many home improvement stocks can experience short-term volatility tied to macroeconomic concerns such as interest rates, housing turnover, and consumer confidence.

That disconnect can create opportunities for investors. When sentiment weakens ahead of the spring surge, it may allow investors to accumulate shares of high-quality companies before seasonal demand strengthens revenue and earnings trends.

Home Depot Remains a Bellwether for Home Improvement Stocks

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) continues to serve as a bellwether for home improvement stocks. The company’s scale, supply chain efficiency, and strong relationships with professional contractors position it to benefit from both DIY and pro-driven demand.

Even in a mixed housing environment, Home Depot has demonstrated resilience by focusing on big-ticket projects and its Pro segment. As seasonal demand improves, that exposure could help drive stronger comparable sales.

It is the dominant big-box retailer built around repair, maintenance, and renovation demand — everything from lumber and tools to appliances and building materials — serving both do-it-yourself customers and, increasingly, professional contractors. When housing activity slows, smaller projects still need to get done. When housing activity picks up, larger projects follow. 

Either way, Home Depot sits in the middle of that spend.

Plus, if you pull up a five-year chart of Home Depot, you’ll see that when the weather warms up, investors warm up to the stock.

• In April 2021, it ran from about $283 to a high of $377.
• In April 2022, it ran from about $272 to a high of $319.
• In April 2023, it ran from about $274 to a high of $313.
• In April 2024, it ran from about $332 to a high of $423.
• In April 2025, it ran from about $343 to a high of about $416.

Nowadays, after a war-driven pullback, the stock could race higher yet again. Plus, while we wait for Home Depot to recover, we can collect its 2.77% yield.

Lowe’s Leverages Operational Improvements for Growth

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is another key name among home improvement stocks for investors to watch. The company has spent several years refining its merchandising strategy, improving inventory management, and targeting professional customers more effectively.

These operational improvements could position Lowe’s to capture incremental market share during the busy spring and summer months, particularly as demand normalizes across categories.

Much like Home Depot, Lowe’s is a home improvement giant built around repair, maintenance, and upgrade spending — everything from lumber and appliances to tools and décor. Recent earnings were solid with EPS of $1.98 beating by four cents. Revenue of $20.58 billion, up about 11% year beat by $240 million. And Lowe’s also just declared a $1.20 quarterly dividend, which is payable on May 6 to shareholders of record as of April 22.

Lowe’s also has a strong history of running higher in warmer months.

• In April 2021, it ran from about 183 to a high of $236.
• In April 2022, after a brief dip, it ran from about $161 to a high of $201.
• In April 2023, it ran from about $188 to a high of $225.
• In April 2024, it ran from about $232 to a high of $269.
• In April 2025, it ran from about $228 to a high of about $268.

The Bottom Line on Buying Home Improvement Stocks Now

The combination of seasonal demand, improving weather conditions, and potential dips tied to macro uncertainty creates a compelling setup for home improvement stocks.

For investors looking to position ahead of the spring and summer renovation boom, periods of weakness may offer an attractive entry point into a sector with historically strong seasonal trends.

It’s a difficult time to be in a sector that’s adjacent to the housing market. Macro crosswinds are stiff as consumers remain anxious about spending; mortgage rates remain elevated, and housing turnover is at multi-year lows.  

Four years ago, these companies benefited from a surge in DIY projects big and small. It’s a different story now, with both companies having to demonstrate an ability to deliver operational execution, margin discipline, and the ability to connect with a changing consumer.  

Neither of these home improvement stocks is going to appeal to growth investors. But if you’re looking to blend stability and yield with capital appreciation in a volatile environment, this decision is about competitive edge and cycle resilience.

Why the Duopoly is Important

Home Depot and Lowe’s dominate the U.S. home improvement sector, capturing the lion’s share of a market environment linked to cyclical housing trends and consumer discretionary spend. Their duopoly affords both pricing power, supply chain scale, and brand stickiness.  

This combination limits new competitive threats and provides a reliable anchor for sector-focused portfolios. However, when one stumbles, the other rarely surges. This makes relative performance analysis essential for those seeking outperformance at the right price point.  

Home Depot Delivered a Poor Report

Home Depot posted $41.4 billion in fiscal Q3 2025 revenue, up 2.8% year-over-year, but the bulk came from its recent GMS acquisition, masking broader stagnation in core same-store sales, which ticked up a meager 0.2%. 

U.S. comps were flat at 0.1%, while adjusted diluted EPS slid to $3.74, missing consensus for the third straight quarter. Management attributed the miss and downward guide revision to weaker-than-hoped demand, noting that the absence of typical seasonal storm activity dampened sales in high-margin repair categories. 

Economic uncertainty and a sluggish housing market have led homeowners to defer expensive renovations, weighing on growth. The profit outlook was cut: adjusted EPS for the year is now forecast to decline roughly 5%, and even with incremental sales from acquisitions, Home Depot expects only modest top-line gains.

CEO Ted Decker noted execution was solid, market share likely expanded, but headwinds from muted consumer spending, lack of storms, and continued housing malaise remain front and center. 

Lowe’s Results – Gaining Traction with The PRO Consumer

Lowe’s reported a mixed quarter as well, with a deeper drop in comp sales, but there were signs of resilience beneath the data. The company’s same-store sales declined 1.7%, having taken a bigger hit from weather-driven category softness, especially in outdoor and seasonal lines.

Top-line revenue lagged Home Depot, and operating margins softened, but the pivot toward the Pro customer base and digital infrastructure investments showed some traction. However, for perspective, Lowe’s is the smaller of the two home improvement stocks, with annual revenues less than half of Home Depot’s.

Management highlighted ongoing improvements in execution, stock repurchases, and cost controls that supported its bottom line. While subscriber numbers for installation and pro-services are scaling up, Lowe’s remains more cyclical—and more sensitive to swings in housing momentum.

Strategic investments in omnichannel and footprint rationalization could pay off, but for now, the wider margin gap and weaker traffic underscore ongoing challenges relative to its larger peer.  

Which of These Home Improvement Stocks is the Better Buy?

 Lowe’s trades at a discount and offers bullish long-term prospects, but the asymmetric trade in the current climate leans toward Home Depot. Its scale, operational leverage, and margin stability give it the edge when cyclical headwinds loom. However, you should watch for a relative reversal if housing rebounds sharply in 2026.

What Could Go Wrong? 

A deeper housing downturn or a surprise spike in unemployment would pressure both stocks, further reducing DIY and professional spending. Continued macro volatility or execution missteps, especially on inventory and expense management, could also erode their duopoly advantages, leaving investors exposed to both cyclical risk and narrowing operational spreads.  

Conclusion 

While neither stock is risk-free, Home Depot currently combines the defensive attributes investors prize with enough resilience to weather ongoing uncertainty. Lowe’s remains a value story worth monitoring, but Home Depot’s stronger margins and steadier comps make it the better buy for now.