This is particularly significant because natural gas is a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, meaning disruptions in energy markets can quickly spill over into agriculture. We also have to remember that the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route in the global nitrogen fertilizer market, which accounts for nearly 60% of global fertilizer use and is especially vital for crops such as corn and other grains. Longer disruptions to that flow through the Strait of Hormuz could cause some major issues for global food prices and supply.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs added, “We anticipate that March 2026 will set a new record for agricultural ETF inflows over the next few sessions, overtaking March 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the strongest month on record.” 

That being said, investors may want to consider ETFs such as:

Invesco DB Agriculture Fund Offers Broad Commodity Exposure

The Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSEARCA: DBA) ETF offers investors an inexpensive way to trade commodity futures. At the moment, it offers exposure to corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean oil, and cotton, to name a few.

It has an expense ratio of 0.9% and pays a yearly dividend; its last payment was just over 91 cents a share on December 26. Before that, it paid out just over $1.08 a share a year earlier. 

Since the year began, the DBA ETF rallied from $25.43 to a recent high of $26.94. From here, we’d like to see it test $30 a share.

iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF Targets Agribusiness Stocks

If more traditional stock-based ETFs are more your style, you can consider the iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF (NYSEARCA: VEGI). The fund offers exposure to companies that produce fertilizers and agricultural chemicals, farm machinery, and packaged foods and meats. 

The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.39% and also pays a dividend twice a year. Its last one was for just over 49 cents, paid on December 19. Before that, it paid out just over 40 cents on June 20. The dividend has a yield of 1.56% as of this writing.

Some of its top holdings include Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE), Corteva (NYSE: CTVA), Nutrien (NYSE: NTR), Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Bunge Global (NYSE: BG), and CF Industries (NYSE: CF). Also, since the start of the year, VEGI ran from a low of about $39 to a high of $47.22. Now back to $45.17, it’s just starting to pivot higher again. We’d like to see it initially test $50.

WisdomTree Agriculture ETF Provides Diversified Futures Exposure

With an expense ratio of 0.49%, the WisdomTree Agriculture (LSE: AIGA) ETF provides “investors with a total return exposure to a basket of Agriculture futures contracts. The ETC aims to replicate the Bloomberg Commodity Agriculture Subindex 4W Total Return Index (BCOMAG4T) by tracking the Bloomberg Agriculture Sub Excess Return Index,” as noted by Wisdom Tree. 

At the moment, soybeans, corn, soybean oil, soy meal, coffee, sugar, wheat, cotton, and cocoa make up the composition of the fund. 

Agriculture ETFs Could Benefit From Rising Food and Fertilizer Prices

In summary, agriculture ETFs are gaining momentum as geopolitical tensions disrupt critical trade routes and threaten global fertilizer supplies.

Funds like DBA, VEGI, and AIGA provide investors with diversified exposure across agricultural commodities, fertilizer producers, and agribusiness companies. As concerns surrounding food inflation and supply shortages continue to grow, agriculture ETFs could remain attractive for investors seeking exposure to one of the market’s strongest emerging macro trends. If fertilizer disruptions persist and commodity prices continue climbing, these ETFs may benefit from rising investor demand and renewed institutional inflows throughout the year.

The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.42, which was 17.4% higher than expectations of $2.06. Revenue of $8 billion came in 6.6% above the $7.5 billion forecast. The company also modestly raised its fiscal year 2026 forecast.  

But with the stock now trading at over $660 per share, is there still upside for investors looking to profit from sector rotation? In order to answer that question, let’s dive into the details of the report.  

A Closer Look at the Numbers 

The headline beat was impressive, but when you dig into the details of the report, a more nuanced story emerges. Total net sales and revenues came in at $9.6 billion, up 13% from $8.5 billion in the year-ago quarter. Equipment operations net sales of $8.0 billion were up 18% year-over-year (YoY).  

However, net income attributable to Deere fell 25% to $656 million compared to $869 million in Q1 2025, and diluted EPS declined 24% from $3.19 to $2.42. This means the quarter’s EPS beat was against a lowered bar, not a growth story on an absolute basis. 

The strength was unevenly distributed across segments. Construction & Forestry was the standout, with net sales surging 34% to $2.67 billion, driven largely by favorable volume and mix. Small Ag & Turf posted a solid 24% sales increase to $2.17 billion.  

But that wasn’t the case in every category. For example, Production & Precision Ag — Deere’s largest and most closely watched segment — grew a more modest 3% to $3.16 billion, with operating profit compressed by headwinds in production costs, currency, and warranty expenses.

Looking ahead, Deere’s full-year 2026 guidance calls for net income of $4.5 to $5.0 billion and net operating cash flow of $4.5 to $5.5 billion. The company projects Construction & Forestry net sales growing roughly 15% for the full year with operating margins expanding to 9–11%, while Small Ag & Turf is also forecast to grow about 15% with margins improving to 13.5–15%. The Production & Precision Ag segment faces a tougher road, with full-year net sales expected to decline 5–10% off the FY2025 base of $17.3 billion. This forecast reflects the well-documented downturn in large ag equipment demand in North America, where Deere forecasts the industry to be down 15–20% for the year. 

In other words, investors should cheer the beat because it was real. However, they should note that it was built on construction momentum and a resilient small ag consumer, not a recovery in the large farm equipment cycle that has been in place for the past two years. 

Will DE Stock Confirm the Bull Flag Pattern? 

The DE stock chart displays a bull flag pattern. This is a bullish momentum indicator that commonly signals that a strong move higher is coming. So even with the post-earnings move of over 10%, there’s still time to catch upside in DE stock.  

That sentiment is backed up by analysts’ forecasts, which have been moving higher since the earnings report. The stock is about 3% above its consensus price target of $640.09. However, investors should pay attention to analysts who have weighed in since the report.  

• Truist Financial raised its price target to $793 from $612. 
• Robert Baird raised its price target to $675 from $467. 
• UBS Group raised its price target to $775 from $535.  
• Oppenheimer reiterated its price target of $715.  

And those price targets could be further influenced by a positive answer to two questions.  

Will Deere Receive Any Relief from the Recent Tariff Decision? 

On Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the IEFA tariffs put in place by the Trump administration. However, as of this writing, it’s unclear how much benefit, if any, Deere will get. That’s because the company is specifically impacted by the Section 232 tariffs on metals such as steel and aluminum, which are critical to Deere’s manufacturing process. 

It’s fair to note that the company gets more cost certainty since the court ruled that the Trump administration cannot unilaterally raise these tariffs above 15%. However, it’s possible that Deere’s overall tariff costs will be lower over time. That won’t be clear for at least another quarter, and likely several quarters. Therefore, investors should be careful not to let the Supreme Court ruling impact their investment strategy.  

Could Deere Split Its Stock?  

This is just speculation on my part, but it’s possible. John Deere has split its stock three times in its history, with the last taking place in 2007. Second, the stock is trading above $660 per share. Many companies don’t announce a split until their stock price is much higher.  

On the other hand, there have been recent examples, such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT), that announced splits at prices much lower than DE stock. Plus, the stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range, which may decrease retail investor interest, which is a critical factor that companies consider when splitting its stock.  

DE Stock Is Part of the Best-in-Class for a Volatile Market 

DE stock is up more than 42% in 2026. That’s on pace to beat the total return of over 35% for the stock in 2025. It’s also higher than the stock’s 3- and 5-year average. Deere & Co. balances its current strength in the industrial sector with the opportunity for future growth from its autonomous products and services.  

That ability to dip into two sectors adds to the appeal of Deere stock. It also helps to justify a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 32x. That’s slightly higher than the sector average and significantly above that of the S&P 500.  

Deere & Co. also pays a dividend that has an annual payout of $6.48 per share, which provides an extra sweetener for buying and holding DE stock in a diversified portfolio.