Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY) gave investors another reason to ask that question after reporting a strong fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026. Fourth-quarter revenue climbed to $4.57 billion while diluted EPS surged 66% to $4.37. For the full fiscal year, revenue reached a record $17.56 billion and diluted EPS climbed to $19.16. On the surface, it looked like another strong earnings report. Yet the figures that kept pulling my attention weren’t revenue or earnings. They were buried elsewhere: 2,944 stores, nearly 10.5 million rewards members, and roughly 800 million annual transactions generated largely from communities many national retailers have spent decades ignoring. 

The Company That Built Where Others Didn’t

Most retailers spent the last few decades chasing population growth. Bigger cities meant more customers, more traffic, and more opportunities to scale. Casey’s took a different path, building store after store across smaller communities where competition was often thinner and customer relationships tended to run deeper.

Today, approximately two-thirds of Casey’s stores are located in towns with populations of 20,000 people or less. That’s an astonishing statistic when you stop and think about it. A company concentrated in rural America has built a footprint large enough to support 10.5 million rewards members and generate 800 million annual transactions. Those aren’t the characteristics of a niche regional retailer. They’re the characteristics of a business operating at a scale most investors don’t immediately associate with Casey’s.

The footprint itself is only part of the story. Supporting nearly 2,944 stores across 19 states requires infrastructure, and Casey’s spent years building it. Three distribution centers now supply roughly 70% of in-store products and approximately 60% of fuel. Long before management started talking about loyalty programs, prepared foods, and digital ordering, the company was laying the foundation that would allow those initiatives to scale efficiently across thousands of locations.

It’s no surprise why the Fourth-quarter net income jumped to $162.7 million from $98.3 million a year ago, while EBITDA climbed to $350.3 million. For the full fiscal year, net income reached $714.4 million and EBITDA climbed to a record $1.48 billion. Casey’s also ended the year with $523 million in cash, repurchased $200.5 million worth of shares during fiscal 2026, and increased its buyback authorization to $1 billion. All of which indicates how productive this network has become.

Why Pizza Keeps Showing Up In The Numbers

The easiest explanation for Casey’s success is pizza.Yes, their breakfast pizza is undefeatable. But the problem is that pizza alone doesn’t explain 800 million transactions.

What pizza does explain is customer behavior.

Prepared-food and fountain same-store sales increased 6.6% during the fourth quarter. More importantly, prepared-food margins expanded to 59.5% from 57.8% a year earlier. A business many investors still categorize as a convenience-store operator is generating restaurant-like margins from one of its fastest-growing categories.

Fuel remains important. Total fuel gallons sold increased 3.6%, same-store fuel gallons rose 1.5%, and fuel gross profit surged 29.1% to $397.4 million. Fuel margins averaged 46.9 cents per gallon. Strong numbers, certainly.

That’s why the pizza moat argument, while simplistic, contains a grain of truth.

People don’t drive across town because they’re emotionally attached to a gallon of gasoline. They absolutely drive across town for food they enjoy. Casey’s pizza has become something of a destination product throughout many of the communities the company serves, creating a reason for customers to choose Casey’s even when competing convenience stores are nearby.

The rest of the inside-store business tells a similar story. Fourth-quarter inside same-store sales increased 5.5%, while inside gross profit climbed 10.5% to $643.4 million. Even more encouraging, inside margin expanded to 42.4% from 41.2% a year ago.

Every one of those figures points in the same direction. Customers aren’t simply stopping at Casey’s, they’re also spending more once they arrive.

Investors Are Now Catching On

The good news is, the market is beginning to appreciate what management has built.

Over the past year, shares climbed from roughly $500 to nearly $900 before entering a consolidation phase that pulled the stock back toward the mid-$700s. Strong stocks often pause after major advances, especially when investors lock in gains following a powerful run. What matters is what happens next.

Casey’s never came close to breaking its longer-term uptrend. Shares remained comfortably above the 200-day moving average near $637 while repeatedly attracting buyers during periods of weakness. The 50-day moving average continues to trend above the 200-day moving average, reinforcing the broader bullish structure, and volume following earnings reflected investors responding positively to another quarter of strong execution rather than searching for an exit.

That reaction makes sense. Revenue is growing. Net income is growing faster. Margins are expanding. Higher-value categories continue gaining traction. Meanwhile, the network supporting all of it remains extraordinarily difficult to replicate.

The Asset Most Investors Are Still Undervaluing

While Pizza attracts attention because it’s easy to understand, the network requires more work.

Yet one appears far more valuable than the other.

Casey’s spent decades building a footprint few competitors could realistically recreate today. This quarter and fiscal year offered another reminder that the company is becoming increasingly effective at monetizing that advantage. The bulls are happy with this.

What’s driving that momentum? Institutional investors appear to be voting with their wallets. Recent 13-F filings show institutional buying running roughly 2-to-1 in favor of buyers versus sellers in dollar volume — a meaningful signal in a market where conviction is scarce. 

Casey’s third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report, released March 9, reinforces why the big money is paying attention. EBITDA for the quarter ended January 31 came in at $308.9 million, up 27.5% year over year, with diluted EPS of $3.49, up 49.8%. Management raised its full-year fiscal 2026 EBITDA growth guidance to 18%–20%. For patient investors, those numbers tell a story of compounding discipline that few retailers can match. 

Casey’s EBITDA Growth Makes It a Rare Retail Compounding Story 

Among S&P 500 and S&P 400 retailers, Casey’s is one of only three companies that delivered 8%-or-better EBITDA growth over one-, five-, and ten-year time horizons simultaneously, joining Costco (NASDAQ: COST) and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI) in that exclusive club. That consistency is the backbone of management’s raised full-year guidance, now targeting 18%–20% EBITDA growth for fiscal 2026. 

The strategy is built on three pillars: accelerating the food business, growing store count, and enhancing operational efficiency. With the rewards program surpassing 10 million active members in the third quarter and the private label program exceeding 300 SKUs, Casey’s is achieving margin gains that most convenience store operators cannot replicate. Its nine-month inside gross margin of 42.2% towers over the industry average of 37%, a gap driven by prepared food and reduced tobacco dependency. 

Nine-month EBITDA through January 31 reached $1.13 billion, up 21% from the same period a year ago. That puts the company well on track to exceed last fiscal year’s $1.2 billion full-year result. 

Institutional Ownership Trends Point to Continued Confidence 

When institutions buy stock at a 2-to-1 clip over sellers in dollar terms, it typically signals one of two things: undervaluation or earnings visibility. In Casey’s case, it may be both. The company trades at roughly 18x forward EBITDA — above the convenience store median of around 10–12x, but in line with quick-service restaurant (QSR) and retail medians, according to the company’s March 2026 investor presentation. 

That valuation premium is supported by a differentiated business model that is hard to replicate. Approximately two-thirds of Casey’s stores operate in towns with 20,000 people or fewer, giving it a rural moat that larger competitors find difficult to penetrate economically. Add in three owned distribution centers and a tanker fleet that delivers roughly 60% of its fuel, and you have a vertically integrated operation with structural cost advantages that show up directly on the margin line. 

Could a Stock Split Be the Next Catalyst for CASY? 

At $664 per share, Casey’s isn’t priced out of retail reach, but it’s not cheap either. The company has executed four stock splits in its history, most recently decades ago when share prices reached levels that management felt warranted an adjustment. With the stock having run from roughly $400 to nearly $700 over the past year, the question is fair to raise. 

No split has been announced, and the company has not signaled one publicly. But at current prices, a 2-for-1 split would bring shares into a range more accessible to individual investors and could modestly expand the retail shareholder base. That move would complement the company’s community-rooted brand identity. 

Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure With Short-Term Consolidation Likely

The daily chart tells a broadly constructive story. CASY has been in a sustained uptrend since last spring, consistently holding above its rising 50-day simple moving average, currently at $630.93. The recent spike in volume — 981,000 shares, well above the typical daily average near 305,000 — accompanied a pullback from February highs near $700, which warrants attention. 

The RSI sits at 53.79 on the daily, with the signal line at 66.16 — a mild bearish divergence suggesting short-term consolidation is more likely than a straight run higher. The post-market reading of $649.85 reflects some digestion after a strong multi-month advance. Support near the 50-day MA and the $630–$640 zone would be the level to watch on any further weakness. 

Casey’s Remains a Long-Term Compounder Worth Watching 

Casey’s General Stores is not a flashy growth story — it’s a grinder. A 50-year-old company that keeps adding stores, improving margins, and generating cash. With institutional buyers firmly in control, a strong balance sheet, raised full-year guidance, and a proven management team delivering top-quintile EBITDA growth, CASY deserves a close look from investors who favor durable businesses over short-term trades.