It’s not so much that there’s something inherently problematic about this signal in the abstract. Statistically, though, this pattern is extremely rare, having only materialized a handful of times over the last several years. What’s more, when this signal flashes, the end result tends to be negative for the SPY.

And so far, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Since the close of March 4, the benchmark ETF has lost roughly 2.5%. The significance here is not so much about the raw performance loss but the overall trend. Due to the rising inferno stemming from the Iran war and its implications for global economic stability, the SPY could be the canary in the coal mine.

Still, not all sectors may be due for a steep correction. If I had to be bullish on a sector right now, I’d take a long look at cybersecurity, especially names like Cloudflare. Headquartered in San Francisco, California, Cloudflare provides a range of internet services, including content delivery network services and cloud cybersecurity.

Fundamentally, these specialties should see rising relevance given Iran’s cybersecurity capabilities. Also, the Iranian strategy isn’t focused on mano-a-mano warfare but rather asymmetric attacks. The bottom line is that no country is going to attack the U.S. head-on. Instead, the point here is to make the war economically unsustainable for the Americans.

That puts U.S. business interests at great risk of cyberattacks, driving relevance for NET stock. Not only that, it appears the smart money has the same idea.

Volatility Skew Goes Bimodal for NET Stock

Easily one of the most important options-related screeners to consider is volatility skew. By definition, the skew identifies implied volatility (IV) — or a stock’s potential range of motion — across the strike price spectrum of a given options chain. In effect, the screener showcases the surface-area distortion of volatility space, allowing retail traders to understand the smart money’s risk positioning.

If you think about it this way, if sentiment were perfectly neutral for NET stock, the skew would be completely flat. However, the market for popular securities is never like that. Most market participants — especially institutional investors — are worried about downside movements. As such, they may buy put options, which act as an insurance product against corrections.

On the flipside, other participants are worried about missing upside opportunities. In that case, you will likely see traders pay a heftier premium for call options. In turn, the skew on the right-hand side (toward higher strike prices) may rise, suggesting that the smart money is positioning for upside convexity.

What makes NET stock rather unique is that its skew is bimodal. From the starting gun, put IV rises higher and higher toward the left-hand side (toward lower strikes). This setup indicates a prioritization of mitigating downside volatility. However, on the other end, call IV also rises toward the right-hand side. Here, the structure suggests that traders simultaneously don’t want to miss out on any rallies.

It’s worth reminding ourselves that the smart money isn’t smart because it’s prescient. This skew reflects the point. It’s obvious that even the most sophisticated players are unsure of where NET stock may head next. But despite the volatility concerns, these folks also don’t want to miss out on a potential sustained rally.

Using the Inductive Approach to Trade Cloudflare Stock

While the smart money may not know where NET stock may go next (hence the bimodal skew), a nagging question remains: is there a way to deduce this information? From a purely mathematical sense, the answer is no. Nothing about the current state of affairs necessarily compels a future outcome. However, what we can do is to reasonably infer an outcome.

Essentially, we’re going to rely on pattern recognition. Here’s the deal. In the past 10 weeks, Cloudflare stock printed only four up weeks, but the overall slope was positive. This market structure creates a rare 4-6-U sequence. As alluded to earlier, there’s nothing special in the abstract about this sequence. However, it’s a distinct signal — and statistically, this setup should yield a distinct distribution.

It’s just like baseball. For many players, the batting average fluctuates depending on whether there are runners in scoring position. Some players simply rise to the occasion and their situational batting average reflects this reality. It’s the same principle (I believe) in the equities market.

Under 4-6-U conditions, NET stock would have a tendency to land between $175 and $262. To be fair, probability density is expected to peak at around $218 on a median basis. However, this data encompasses an approximation from all examples of the 4-6-U sequence. Fundamentally, I speculate that the current circumstance of the Iran war offers an unusual catalyst.

We’re facing a potential paradigm-shifting event that could impose long-standing economic consequences. Further, U.S. business interests will be prime targets for Iranian asymmetric attacks. Given this framework, I don’t think adding some Kentucky windage is a bad idea.

Identifying a Specific Trading Idea

For aggressive speculators, the one idea that I find appealing is the 240/250 bull call spread expiring May 15. This wager requires NET stock to rise through the $250 strike at expiration to be fully profitable. If it does, the maximum payout (at time of writing) comes out to nearly 120%. Breakeven lands at $244.55, helping to somewhat improve probabilistic credibility.

There’s no doubt that this trade features a thin wing, meaning that the window of profitability is narrow. In order for this trade to work, we would be aiming for the security’s high point (which flashed on Halloween). While an aggressive target, the combo of fundamental and quantitative evidence arguably makes NET stock intriguing.

There will undoubtedly be twists and turns to this story. However, as investors, it’s time to start thinking about what opportunities might be available if Greenland becomes part of the United States.  

But First, Why Greenland?  

The issues involving the United States interest in annexing Greenland are multifaceted. A deep dive is better left to people who have more knowledge of the issues. However, on a high level, Greenland has vast, untapped reserves of critical minerals, including rare earth elements (REEs), that are needed for many of the current advanced technologies, including those having to do with the defense industry.  

Critical Metals 

Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) is a rare earth play that is up over 150% in the first two weeks of 2026. The stock isn’t climbing for fundamental reasons. The mining company is still in the exploratory stage, so it is not profitable and has no revenue. This is a buy-the-headline event. 

In this case, Critical Metals has received the go-ahead to begin construction of its Tanbreez rare-earth project in Greenland. This comes at approximately the same time that the company announced plans for a joint venture with Saudi Arabia that will create a $1.5 billion rare earth mineral processing facility in the kingdom.  

Energy Fuels 

Energy Fuels Inc. (NYSEAMERICAN: UUUU) is a company that is largely known for its uranium production. However, the company is leveraging existing U.S. infrastructure to move beyond being just a uranium producer, building out rare earth separation capabilities. This gives investors a pure‑play on the policy push to rebuild Western nuclear and critical minerals supply chains.  

Management has outlined a path to commercial heavy rare earth oxide production by around 2026, backed by roughly $900 million in available capital to fund the build‑out. That timeline aligns with U.S. Department of Energy initiatives to end reliance on Russian nuclear fuel and expand domestic enrichment and processing capacity, effectively pulling forward demand visibility for politically favored suppliers.  

By focusing on processing and separation rather than only greenfield mining, the company aims to sit in the highest‑value part of the supply chain where federal incentives and strategic offtake agreements are likely to concentrate. Still, investors should be mindful that the company isn’t yet profitable.  

MP Materials

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) gives investors direct leverage to the U.S. rare earth magnet story, anchored by its Mountain Pass operation in California, one of the only scaled rare earth mines and processors outside China. As Washington broadens its definition of “critical minerals” and shifts funding toward high‑risk supply chains, rare earth producers with proven assets and processing capabilities are positioned to benefit disproportionately.  

The U.S. is moving from viewing rare earths as a niche EV and wind story to recognizing them as foundational for defense, automation, and advanced manufacturing. Permanent magnets made from neodymium‑iron‑boron and related materials are essential for precision‑guided munitions, drones, radar, and other systems that sit at the center of rising defense budgets.  

Investors should watch how MP executes downstream integration into magnet production, where margins and strategic value are highest. As the government seeks to tilt contracts and incentives toward domestic supply, a scaled U.S. mine‑to‑magnet platform could become a core node in the Western critical minerals’ ecosystem, with demand tied to both electrification and rearmament.  

Lockheed Martin  

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) remains one of the most direct ways to express a view that defense spending is entering a structurally higher range as geopolitical risk rises and NATO moves toward more ambitious spending targets. Programs like the F‑35, missile defense systems, and advanced munitions give the company durable, multi‑decade cash flows that tend to grow when policymakers prioritize deterrence and replenishment of depleted stockpiles.  

With the U.S. defense budget projected to push above $1 trillion in fiscal 2026, and additional reconciliation funding under discussion, primes like Lockheed are likely to see growing order books across air, missile, and space platforms. The Pentagon has already highlighted the need to sharply increase production of missiles and drones, areas where Lockheed’s existing capacity and technology base offer a competitive edge.  

For investors, the key lens is backlog and visibility. As NATO partners accelerate their own procurement to meet higher GDP‑based targets, international orders can complement U.S. demand, supporting a defensive earnings profile that tends to hold up better through economic cycles.  

RTX Corporation 

RTX (NYSE: RTX) formed from the merger of United Technologies and Raytheon, provides a diversified play on both commercial aerospace recovery and rising global defense outlays. The company’s Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney segments tie RTX to long‑cycle engine and avionics demand, while the Raytheon business gives it exposure to missiles, missile defense, radar, and secure communications that sit at the heart of modern conflict.  

RTX has been growing revenue while expanding its backlog, with recent quarters showing sales in the low‑ to mid‑$80 billion range annually and a backlog that has climbed into the mid‑$200 billion zone. That order book provides multiyear visibility as NATO partners and the U.S. simultaneously replace depleted inventories and invest in next‑generation air and missile defense systems.  

From a financial standpoint, RTX has returned to solid profitability with normalized return on equity in the low‑teens and a dividend yield that, while modest, has room to grow as free cash flow improves. With a beta below 1 and a mix of commercial and defense cash flows, the stock offers a relatively balanced way to participate in both the aerospace upcycle and the rearmament trend.  

Why These Themes Converge

Taken together, CRML, UUUU, MP, LMT, and RTX sit at the junction of three secular forces: critical mineral security, nuclear and electrification tailwinds, and a sustained upshift in global defense spending. Policymakers are signaling that they are willing to commit hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming decade to reduce reliance on Russia and China for nuclear fuel, rare earths, and advanced military hardware, effectively underwriting demand for aligned suppliers.   

Fundamentally, cybersecurity represents a line item on the corporate expense sheet that cannot be underserved. All it really takes is one bad data breach to nuke a hard-earned reputation — not to mention the loss of customer trust and heightened regulatory scrutiny. Even worse, cybercriminals are becoming increasingly adept at breaching defenses. And for all its benefits, gen AI would expand the scale and scope of critical vulnerabilities.

It’s also fair to point out that Palo Alto Networks isn’t the only name in cybersecurity. With competition heating up, the company finds itself in challenging waters. With broader economic headwinds weighing on sentiment, PANW stock hasn’t been the strongest performer, gaining less than 13% in the past 52 weeks. For context, the S&P 500 gained more than 19% during the same period.

Nevertheless, the rising sophistication of cybercrime cynically necessitates digital security. Therefore, while Palo Alto may not be the most riveting business, it happens to be one of the most important enterprises. For investors, there’s a long-term case to be made. At the same time, options traders may have an enticing opportunity with PANW stock.

Pushing Upstream into the Informational Space

As a rule of thumb, anytime you place a wager in the market — especially in the options arena — you should assume that you’re operating from a disadvantage. No matter how smart you are, so long as you are classified as a retail market participant, you will always be downstream of pretty much everything.

By the time actionable information gets to your screen, the intelligence has already been filtered down through multiple institutional layers. Even expert opinion — which by nature is a downstream construct — has likely been first disseminated to privileged investors. Unless you are an institutional entity, you are always last to know.

To be blunt, when it comes to access, there is really no way to go upstream. However, this doesn’t mean that you’re forever doomed to be trading with one hand tied behind your back. The fact of the matter is, nobody knows what tomorrow will bring. Therefore, any assertions about tomorrow are never neutral.

Of course, Wall Street can’t just throw its hands up in the air and plead ignorance. Subsequently, market makers will use formulations derived from the Black-Scholes model as a first-order approximation of forward risk pricing. It’s from this model that options-related probabilities come from. However, what’s important to keep in mind is that these probabilities are presuppositional.

Essentially, they’re probabilities relative to a normally distributed world that the Black-Scholes model has created. In this paradigm, risk is calculated monotonically; that is, risk rises in proportion to the target price’s distance away from the spot price. To use a football analogy, a 50-yard field goal represents a much more difficult proposition than a 30-yard attempt.

However, in certain game situations, it’s possible that a 30-yard kick may be more difficult than a 50-yarder. For example, a kicker may have extreme difficulty in a massive crosswind and would prefer a longer attempt in a clean environment.

The problem for market makers is that they can’t just price risk in an unorthodox way for some securities and not for others. Fortunately, the retail trader has no such restrictions and is free to price risk however they want.

My hypothesis, ultimately, is that PANW stock options are incorrectly priced — and bullish speculators may potentially take advantage of this dynamic by going upstream the information space.

Exploiting a Pricing Mismatch for PANW Stock

As one of the most relevant players in the broader tech ecosystem, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that PANW stock enjoys an upward bias. Looking at the security from a hierarchical perspective, past historical data going back to January 2019 reveals that a random 10-week position held in PANW would land between $185 and $202 (assuming a spot price of $189.02).

However, we’re not interested in trading Palo Alto stock for its aggregate behavior but rather the statistical response to its current quantitative structure. In the last 10 weeks, PANW printed only three up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. Typically, investors may consider this setup to be unusually risky as it implies that the bears have control. Still, under this framework, PANW tends to resolve upward over the next 10 weeks.

Specifically, after the 3-7-D (three up, seven down, downward trend) sequence flashes, Palo Alto stock would be expected to land between $193 and $207. Moreover, probability density would likely peak around $200. What’s even more fascinating, probability decay between $200 and $205 would sharply accelerate. As such, it would make sense to cap off debit-based exposure around the $200 mark.

Looking at Black-Scholes-derived options calculators, the chance that PANW stock will reach $200 by the Feb. 20, 2026, monthly expiration date would be 31.42%. However, a hierarchical model isolating for the response to the 3-7-D sequence shows that a landing spot of $200 is contextually realistic. It’s not a moonshot bit of speculation as the Black-Scholes model implies.

Basically, Wall Street prices risk as a function of distance to the current spot price. However, it has not been proven that PANW stock’s behavioral patterns can be best described by a lognormal, parametric calculation. In my best estimation, the 31.42% figure that Wall Street is calculating is overly pessimistic.

As such, I would be a buyer of PANW stock — but only up to a certain point.

Targeting a Sensible Trade for Palo Alto Stock

Given the market intelligence above, the trade that comes off as the most appealing (in my opinion) is the 195/200 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20. This trade requires PANW stock to rise through the second-leg strike ($200) at expiration. If it does, the maximum payout would clock in at 150%. Breakeven sits at $197, adding to the trade’s probabilistic credibility.

To be sure, there are higher-strike spreads that offer much bigger payouts. However, the expected distribution of PANW stock outcomes reveals a sharp drop in probability density beyond the $202 price point. Therefore, cutting off upside exposure at $200 makes plenty of sense.

It’s not that generative AI is about to take a backseat or that it will soon be relegated to other passing fads. By all indications, machine learning will reshape the paradigm of productivity over the next century and beyond. The problem is the extraordinary capital expenditures that have flowed into the space. With the low-hanging fruit being plucked, investors are largely operating in “show-me” mode.

Such concerns represent volatility risks — but they also offer upside opportunities.

Essentially, the stock market is a multiverse, with alternate versions of reality competing for dominance of the one true timeline. Such a framework becomes all the more obvious in the options market, where traders are quite literally speculating on or hedging against myriad manifestations of reality becoming exclusive.

With so many voices and trades whizzing around in the options ecosystem, it’s inevitable that pricing inefficiencies will occur. Even better, retail traders enjoy certain structural advantages that they can potentially exploit — so long as they leverage risk topography.

What is Risk Topography in the Stock Market?

At the core, risk topography is a three-dimensional view of demand structure, encompassing expected (terminal) price, probability density and population frequency. In other words, risk topography offers a visual diagram to answer some of the biggest questions that traders have: how much, how likely and how frequently?

Imagine that you’re the head coach of a professional football team. From the perspective of casual fans, they may only care about wins and losses. Ultimately, you care about those things too. However, you are also deeply vested in the process of winning — the preparation, the analytics, the in-game adjustments and so on.

Obviously, winning matchups involves scoring more points than the opposition. However, given the limited time that you have — along with limited resources (i.e., players can’t go full speed all the time without risking exhaustion and/or injury) — your team must maximize opportunities when it has control of the ball.

Essentially, this dynamic means that when there are realistic opportunities, you should go for touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. A perfect example is the decision to go for it on fourth down. While a fourth-down conversion attempt has a lower probability than kicking a field goal (depending on distance), the former event has a higher expected value.

If you always settle for field goals when you really had a good chance of scoring touchdowns, you risk losing the game down the line — especially if your opponent gains momentum. Touchdowns stack up big points and help maximize your offense’s full potential.

Of course, you don’t just go for it willy-nilly, and that’s where risk topography enters the frame. By understanding where stock activity traverses over a given time period, you can make an educated guess whether it’s worthwhile to be aggressive or stick with the data.

Plotting a Trade for AVGO Stock

Looking at AVGO stock specifically, over any given 10-week period, Broadcom would be expected to land between $332 and $386 (assuming an anchor price of $347.62). However, the densest part of probability mass would concentrate between $355 and $370. Beyond $370, AVGO’s risk geometry shows a severe acceleration in probability decay. Therefore, rational, data-driven traders will likely be targeting the strike prices of $360 and $370.

However, we’re not particularly interested in trading the aggregate data of AVGO stock (which in this case extends back to January 2019). Instead, we want to isolate the statistical response to the current quantitative signal. In the past 10 weeks, AVGO stock printed only four up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. Under this setup, the forward 10-week returns would be expected to range between $330 and $410.

Most importantly, probability density would be most elevated between $357 and $383. What’s more, between $380 and $385, the penalty in probability density isn’t that severe, landing at roughly 24%. Stated differently, the probability density of AVGO stock terminating at $350 over the next 10 weeks is about the same as the density of the stock terminating at $390.

Let’s pause here for a second because this insight represents the structural advantage that retail traders enjoy.

Generally speaking, Wall Street’s market makers price risk monotonically; that is, risk increases in proportion to distance away from spot. Under this parametric model (such as Black-Scholes), betting on the $390 strike should be considered riskier than betting on the $350 strike. However, under this quantitative, hierarchical framework, the probabilistic risk is about the same. Thus, you are incentivized to go for it on fourth down.

On another point, by looking at risk topography, we can see that there is heightened activity (population frequency) expected around the $380 level. Although most instances of the 4-6-D signal would see AVGO stock land between $357 and $383, the projected population data lends some credence that, under certain conditions, there’s a chance that the stock will terminate at $390.

Putting It All Together

Given all the data that we have collected through a deep dive of risk topography, bullish speculators may be tempted by the 380/390 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. This trade is aggressive, requiring AVGO stock to rise through the $390 strike at expiration to fully trigger profitability.

However, if the trigger does materialize, the maximum payout stands at almost 285%. For only putting $260 at risk (which is the most that can be lost), you’re fighting for the chance to gain $740 as profit. What’s more, the breakeven price lands at $382.60, which puts the threshold near the meat of peak probability density.

After all, if an attractive $500 stock were to split 10:1, bringing it to $50 a share, more investors are likely to jump in. In short, stock splits can change behavior. And in financial markets, behavior drives price action.

Plus, according to Morningstar.com, “Splits matter – because these stocks outperform after the announcement, by a lot. Average returns one year later are 25% vs. 12% for the S&P 500 SPX as a whole, say researchers at Bank of America. It’s worth brushing up on stock splits now, for two reasons. Stock splits are picking up again after a decade-long lull.” 

Below are three companies that have announced stock splits that may be positioned for upside based on oversold price action, improving fundamentals, and supportive macro trends.

Netflix (NFLX): Post-Split Ad Momentum and a Technical Reset

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) completed a 10-for-1 stock split in November, lowering its share price into a more accessible range for both individual investors and certain institutional mandates. The immediate reaction wasn’t bullish — shares dropped to about $94.50 post-split — but this volatility may be creating an opportunity for accumulation.

Technically, NFLX is heavily oversold:

• RSI is deeply under 40
• MACD is curling toward a bullish crossover
• Williams’ %R signals selling exhaustion

A rebound to the $110 range seems achievable as initial resistance. The split doesn’t alter the business, but it does reshape the narrative, and narratives matter at key turning points.

Fundamentally, Netflix is evolving. Its advertising tier is on track to double revenue year over year, a meaningful development that can boost margins and generate a second engine of growth beyond subscription income. With content spend stabilizing and its global scale still unmatched, the lower post-split share price could attract a wave of buyers in early 2026, especially if technicals confirm.

O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY): A Durable Compounder Post-Split

O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) executed a 15-for-1 stock split in June, aimed not only at investors but at employees. CEO Brad Beckham highlighted that the split allows team members to buy whole shares through payroll programs at a 15% discount, creating a stronger internal equity culture. That strategy can matter more than traders realize; companies with employee ownership alignment often deliver better long-term performance.

The market initially rewarded the move. ORLY jumped from about $90 to $108.72, a gain of nearly 20%. Since then, it has pulled back to roughly $92.25, where, like Netflix, it sits deeply oversold on RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R.

This looks like a potential buy-the-dip zone. A recovery to $100 is a reasonable first target in 2026, with further upside possible if the economy stabilizes and auto maintenance spending remains durable. With the average car age in the U.S. climbing above 12 years — the highest level on record — the demand backdrop for auto parts and repair remains supportive..

ServiceNow (NOW): Stock Split + Cybersecurity + AI = Growth Vector

ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) completed its 5-for-1 stock split on December 18 to make shares more affordable for individual investors. Now trading near $153.89, the stock is sitting on strong support dating back to April, and technical indicators show a potential inflection point. A gap-fill rally to $175 is the first area to watch.

But what’s arguably more important is timing: the stock split arrived just as ServiceNow announced a $7.75 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Armis, a move designed to expand its footprint in AI-driven security automation. In an AI age where enterprise vulnerabilities are multiplying, demand for automated defense is likely to accelerate.

CEO Bill McDermott noted that the deal could triple the company’s market opportunity in security and risk solutions. In his words:

“In this AI world, especially with the agents, you’re going to need to protect enterprises because every intrusion is a multimillion-dollar problem.”

Why Stock Splits Matter in 2026

Stock splits may not change intrinsic value — but they do change market psychology, participation, and in many cases momentum. Historically, they’ve been associated with above-average performance, and in an environment where interest rates are stabilizing and liquidity is returning, these signals may matter even more.

Investors don’t need to chase every split, but they should track them. When a quality company executes a split from a position of strength — and the technicals align — it can be a compelling signal headed into a new year.

Fortunately for stakeholders, the casino and resorts operator topped earnings and revenue estimates, leading to a 5% jump in LVS stock following the disclosure. Even better, the security showed no signs of stopping. Between the close of October 22 and last Friday, LVS stock gained nearly 31%. For those who follow my work at TipRanks, you’ll know that I stated on October 14 that the security represented a buy-the-dip opportunity.

At the time, I focused on the demand structure of LVS stock, noting that over the past 10 weeks, the number of up weeks and down weeks had been evenly split. However, the overall slope during this period was negative. Under such circumstances, the forward 10-week returns tend to lean bullishly.

However, I must admit that I didn’t account for the euphoria that an earnings beat would generate. If I could redo things, I would have focused on a much more aggressive trading idea.

Nevertheless, with LVS stock gaining so much ground over the past two months, it may be time to think about securing some profits. In fact, based on the latest quantitative signal I’m seeing, I fear that a downside movement could be in store for Las Vegas Sands.

Implementing a New Framework for LVS Stock

As you might imagine, successful trading in the unforgiving options market requires extensive analysis. In particular, we want to place wagers based on behavioral patterns. However, this term implies multiple trials, which is a difficult concept to rectify as a stock represents a singular journey across time. Further, the price itself is unbounded as it could theoretically rise indefinitely.

Because of these challenges, data conversion is necessary before we can conduct meaningful probabilistic analysis of the equities market. First, price action needs to be converted from a continuous signal to a discrete one. We can accomplish this task through discretization — basically converting price sequences into up and down sessions.

Through discretization, we create data homogeneity. For example, an up session in 2019 would fall under the same category as an up session in 2025. This shared language allows us to have a deep wealth of past analogs from which we generate our probabilistic assessments.

Next, we frame this discretized data under a hierarchical lens. If we took a single 10-week strand of LVS stock price data, the return during this period wouldn’t tell us anything about the probability of performance for the other weeks in the dataset. But what if we stacked hundreds of rolling 10-week trials onto a fixed-time distribution? At that point, the most frequent, consistent behaviors would create bulges in probability mass.

These bulges represent risk geometry, which in part tells us the ascendancy of bearish sentiment among sellers. More importantly, this metric identifies the transition where sellers are tempted to become buyers. Therefore, risk geometry gives us insights as to where we can push — and where we should back off.

Regarding LVS stock, its forward 10-week returns are likely to range between roughly $65.20 and $67 (assuming an anchor price of $66.20, Friday’s close). Furthermore, price clustering is predominant at around $66.15, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias.

However, we’re interested in the statistical response to the current quantitative signal, which is the 4-6-U sequence. In the past 10 weeks, LVS stock printed only four up weeks, but with an overall upward slope. Under this setup, forward 10-week outcomes are expected to range between $58 and $69, with price clustering likely to occur at $64.

Using Risk Topography to Narrow Down a Trade

Based on the market intelligence above, you may be tempted to just consider targeting the $64 zone, but there’s an obvious problem. LVS stock options are priced in intervals of $2.50, meaning that the closest bear put spread strategy would feature a second-leg strike of $65.

For a nearer-term expiration date, such as Jan. 16, 2026, there are a few bear put spreads with a $65 second-leg strike that feature payouts above 100%. However, if you were to push out to Feb. 20, the maximum payouts would land between 54% and 66% at the time of writing. That’s okay, but not great.

To help pick an appropriate trade, options traders should consider Las Vegas Sands’ risk topography, a framework that charts probability mass in three-dimensional space. Using this approach, we can clearly see not only projected areas of heightened activities but also their probabilistic depth relative to each other.

In the case of LVS stock, activity is projected to be heaviest at around $64. However, at around $62, past analogs suggest that a secondary cluster of activity could materialize. Therefore, if we were to cap our upside reward at $65 and LVS drops to $62, we would end up absorbing an opportunity cost.

A better idea may be to target the 62.50/65.00 bear put spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. With this wager, the breakeven price would land at $63.80, which is right where heightened activity is set to emerge. Essentially, the structure of this trade suggests that speculators would have a strong chance of not losing money.

Further, the second leg of the bear put spread extending out to $62 would allow you to be in contention for outsized rewards if LVS stock manages to trigger the downside threshold at expiration. Indeed, the maximum payout would clock in at over 108%.

Using Data Science to Drive Home a Trade

Please keep in mind that none of the above implies that Las Vegas Sands is a bad business. Rather, it’s just that the market is non-ergodic and reflexive — and it’s quite easy for enthusiasm to get out of hand. Based on the empirical data, LVS stock could be due for a mild correction. Therefore, a bear put spread extracted through careful data science may entice astute, numbers-driven speculators.

The debasement trade in gold is well-documented and will continue into 2026 and beyond. That trade is also beginning to show up in the price of silver, which may overtake gold as a catch-up trade in the new year.  

However, the move in metals and mining stocks extends beyond what is being called the “Burl Ives trade” (i.e., silver and gold; look up Yukon Cornelius, young ones). While not a precious metal, copper is going to be one of the most critical metals for the next decade. It’s needed in virtually every significant industry.  

It’s also time to consider rare earth metals. There’s been a lot of noise in this sector in 2025. That’s likely to continue in 2026, but the importance of rare earths to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is impossible to ignore.  

Mining stocks can be a way for you to get solid exposure to the metals market without the custodial risks of owning physical metals or the volatility of trading commodities. Here are four names to consider for 2026. 

Mining Stocks to Buy: MP Materials – Rare Earth Exposure in a Strategic Era 

As mentioned in the introduction, rare earth elements are no longer an obscure corner of the commodity market; they’re becoming strategic assets in the emerging AI and clean energy economy. MP Materials (NYSE: MP) is still the best U.S.-based pure play on that theme.  

The company’s Mountain Pass mine in California continues to ramp up production as it works to close the loop from mining to magnet manufacturing. With the U.S. government prioritizing domestic rare earth independence from China, MP stands to benefit from favorable policy support, higher pricing power, and supply chain security initiatives. 

Looking ahead to 2026, there will be consistent, if not growing demand for neodymium magnets used in EV motors, wind turbines, and AI data centers. In that case, MP’s vertically integrated model could gain serious operating leverage. For speculative investors eyeing asymmetric upside, MP offers a long-dated play on America’s strategic mineral independence. 

Despite a frustratingly choppy market for MP due to operational delays and soft short-term pricing, MP stock is still up 242% in 2025. But it’s down about 22% in the last three months of the year. That could create a buying opportunity. Analysts give MP stock a consensus price target of $79, which is 47% higher than its closing price on December 26.  

Mining Stocks to Buy: Freeport-McMoRan – The Copper King’s Second Wind 

Analysts believe the year-end rally in copper is only the beginning of a strong catch-up trade in 2026 and beyond. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) is positioned as the global bellwether of copper. With major exposure to low-cost, long-life assets in the Americas and Indonesia, Freeport has the scale and flexibility to capitalize on tightening copper markets. 

The story here is a simple case of strong, structural demand meeting scarce supply. Electrification trends, grid upgrades, and data center construction all point toward a multiyear bull market for copper.

Analysts now forecast a potential deficit emerging by late 2026, and Freeport’s balance sheet has rarely been stronger. After several years of deleveraging, the company is quietly transforming from a cyclical miner into a cash-flow machine geared toward shareholder returns. 

If copper prices continue creeping toward the long-term incentive level near $5 per pound, Freeport’s margins could expand dramatically. For investors seeking exposure to hard assets with true growth optionality, FCX remains one of the best-positioned asymmetric bets in the sector. 

Mining Stocks to Buy: Dakota Gold – A High-Conviction Bet on U.S. Gold 

The first two stocks on my list may not have scratched your speculative itch. But that’s about to change with my third pick. Dakota Gold (NYSEAM: DC) is not a household name. But for investors looking for early-stage exposure to the U.S. gold renaissance, this South Dakota-based explorer may be the under-the-radar winner in the making.  

Its Homestake District project sits on historically prolific ground that produced more than 40 million ounces of gold over a century. The company’s recent drilling results at its Richmond Hill site have started to validate that history, showing high-grade mineralization with promising continuity. 

Gold’s macro backdrop looks increasingly favorable. With real yields capping and fiscal deficits growing, 2026 could set the stage for renewed inflows into gold equities. As capital rotates toward U.S.-based, geopolitically secure assets, Dakota Gold could capture outsized attention.

Exploration remains inherently speculative, but discoveries in this district often re-rate quickly once continuity is proven. Investors with a tolerance for volatility and an eye for leverage to higher gold prices should consider DC a potential hidden gem with multibagger potential. 

Mining Stocks to Buy: Endeavour Silver -Riding the Silver Beta 

Endeavour Silver (NYSE: EXK) is one of the purest ways to play a potential silver catch-up rally in 2026. The company operates three producing mines in Mexico and is transitioning into a near-term growth phase as its Terronera project comes online. Terronera is expected to roughly double Endeavour’s production profile while materially reducing unit costs—a combination that could significantly expand margins at spot silver prices. 

Silver’s unique position between monetary metal and industrial commodity makes it particularly interesting going into a year marked by both rate-cut odds and AI-driven manufacturing demand. Historically, silver has outperformed gold in the middle innings of a precious metals rally, and Endeavour’s cost structure gives it strong torque to rising prices. 

While execution risk remains, Endeavour’s clean balance sheet and pipeline of growth assets give it genuine leverage to the next leg of the silver cycle. For those seeking speculative exposure with credible operational progress, EXK offers a high-beta play on silver’s potential resurgence. 

Final Thoughts: Positioning for Asymmetry in 2026 

The metals trade is cyclical, but cycles often disguise opportunity. The setup heading into 2026 blends supply stress, policy tailwinds, and technological demand in a way investors rarely see. From rare earths and copper to gold and silver, each of these companies offers a distinctive risk-reward profile—but all share the same theme: asymmetry. For investors willing to embrace volatility, 2026 could be a breakout year for this overlooked corner of the market. 

The reason is that more Americans are renting again.

In fact, as noted by Fortune.com, “For the first time since 2016, America’s homeownership rate has tipped into negative territory, signaling a subtle but profound shift in the nation’s housing dynamics, Redfin reports in its new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. In the second quarter of 2025, the number of U.S. homeowner households fell ever so slightly, by 0.1% year over year to 86.2 million, while renter households surged by 2.6% to 46.4 million—one of the largest increases in recent memory.”

That tells us the percentage of people owning a home isn’t growing much, if at all. 

By now, the reasons for the housing slowdown have become obvious: rising home prices, high mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty. But as investors, we can profit from stock appreciation and dividends from those higher rent numbers with real estate investment trusts (REITs).

REITs have been poor investments for the better part of two years But that may be about to change, and here are three names that belong on a list of dividend stocks to own.

Dividend Stocks to Own: AvalonBay Communities

With a yield of 4.02%, AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB) is an attractive first choice for income investors. But AVB stock is also starting to look like a compelling growth play as well. Analysts give the stock a consensus price target of $209.35, which is 17% above the stock price as of this writing. It’s worth noting that recent price targets have been moving higher. 

AvalonBay is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California.

The company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 3,315 apartment communities containing 97,212 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 20 communities were under development.

One benefit of owning a REIT stock is that they are required to pay out a high percentage of its earnings as dividends. To that end, AvalonBay just paid a dividend of $1.75 a share on October 15.

Dividend Stocks to Own: Equity Residential

Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) is the next REIT on this list of dividend stocks to own. The company’s dividend has a yield of 4.72% as of this writing. Analysts also have price targets that suggest that EQR stock is undervalued.

Equity Residential is focused on the acquisition, development and management of residential properties located in and around cities that attract affluent long-term renters. It owns or has investments in 317 properties consisting of 85,936 apartment units, in Boston, New York, Washington, D.C., Seattle, San Francisco and Southern California, and an expanding presence in Denver, Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth and Austin.

Equity Residential paid a dividend of just over 69 cents on October 10. That dividend payout has increased for four consecutive years.

Dividend Stocks to Own: UMH Properties

UMH Properties Inc. (NYSE: UMH) is an intriguing choice for investors who are tracking trends.

UMH Properties owns and operates a portfolio of 144 manufactured home communities with approximately 26,900 developed homesites, of which 10,800 contain rental homes, and over 1,000 self-storage units. These communities are located in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, and Alabama.

Manufactured homes are becoming a popular choice for first-time homeowners who are looking for options beyond an apartment complex. And demand for self-storage units has been growing since the “great relocation” started in 2020.

UMH stock has a dividend yield of 6.17% and will pay a dividend of just over 22 cents per share on December 15 to shareholders of record as of November 17.

How fast may take longer than some investors would like. However, it means there’s still an opportunity to invest in gene editing stocks while a long runway exists.  

Right now, there are two distinct paths for investors. One is to invest in established pharmaceutical companies. These companies have the financial resources to integrate gene editing into their pipelines by acquiring smaller companies that have done the initial research and development.  

The second path is to look for smaller innovators that are pioneering first-generation cures. Some of these companies may be takeover candidates for the future.  

Here’s a look at four gene editing stocks ranging from blue-chip stability to high-risk, high-reward innovation. 

Big Pharma’s Quiet Gene Editing Powerhouse 

Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) has been one of the best stocks to own in the last three years regardless of the sector. LLY stock has delivered a total return of over 187% in that time, largely stemming from its leadership in GLP-1 drugs for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity.  

However, Lilly is also using its robust balance sheet to fund key acquisitions and collaborations in the gene editing space. The company has deals in place with Beam Editing for base editing and Precision BioSciences for in vivo gene editing.  

This positions the company in the “how” and the “where” of gene editing. Its current focus is on diseases driven by genetic mutations in the liver and neuromuscular system. The company’s candidates are in the early trial stage with completion not expected until 2028 to 2030.  

That would be a concern for many smaller firms, but Lilly has the cash flow and global infrastructure to pull it off. Lilly isn’t the speculative moonshot that some investors crave, but it’s a blue-chip sector leader with yet another reason to believe it will climb even higher.  

Commercializing CRSPR First 

In the introduction, I mentioned that the FDA approved its first CRISPR therapy in 2023. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRTX) is the large-cap biotech name behind that achievement. Vertex produced Casgevy via its partnership with CRISPR Therapeutics. Casgevy is a first-of-its-kind treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.  

Vertex is also exploring in vivo delivery methods and expanding its genetic medicine pipeline beyond hematology to areas that include cystic fibrosis and Type 1 diabetes. That makes it a leader not just in gene editing, but in translational biotechnology, turning molecular innovation into patient outcomes and revenue. 

However, investors haven’t seen much impact from gene editing on its stock yet. VRTX stock has delivered a total return of around 41% in the past three years. That’s not bad by any means, but certainly not what many growth investors seek.  

One reason for that is that Casgevy is still in the early commercialization phase. Vertex expects around $100 million in revenue from Casgevy in its 2025 fiscal year, a fraction of the company’s total revenue which is expected to be approximately $12 billion.  

The Pioneer Has Moved from Science to Revenue 

CRISPR Therapeutics (NASDAQ: CRSP) helped invent the modern gene editing era, and now it’s starting to reap the rewards. Best known as Vertex’s partner on Casgevy, the company is transitioning from a development-stage biotech to a revenue-generating enterprise.  

Beyond its approved therapy, CRISPR Therapeutics has a deep pipeline that includes CAR-T oncology programs, as well as in vivo gene editing candidates aimed at muscle and liver disorders.

The company’s expertise in CRISPR-Cas9 biology positions it at the forefront of next-generation therapeutics. This includes its investigational CRISPR/Cas9 in vivo gene editing therapy CTX310 that targets angiopoietin-related protein 3 (ANGPTL3) for cardiovascular and cardiometabolic disease.  

Still, CRSP stock is a highly volatile moonshot of sorts. The company’s fortunes are closely tied to the speed and success of its early pipeline. For investors comfortable with risk, this is a pure-play on CRISPR technology with tangible commercial validation and a long runway for growth. 

A Deep-Science Speculative Play 

Editas Medicine Inc. (NASDAQ: EDIT) is the most speculative of the gene editing stocks on this list. The company is a pioneer in the CRSIPR field. However, Editas is still a clinical-stage company, which makes it a high-risk investment that may produce a high reward for investors.  

The company’s lead program, EDIT-401, is a one-time gene editing therapy designed to cut LDL cholesterol. Another candidate, EDIT-301, targets sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia using a unique editing approach that differs from Casgevy’s. Early trial data have been promising, showing effective gene correction and robust hemoglobin production in treated patients.  

While execution has been uneven in the past, recent management changes and solid clinical results have revived investor optimism. With a market cap under $1 billion, even modest clinical success could deliver outsized returns. For those willing to stomach volatility, Editas is the classic moonshot in genetic medicine. 

The headline numbers for the company’s report were strong. Revenue of $17.64 billion beat expectations for $16.77 billion by a comfortable 5.15%. Earnings per share (EPS) of $4.95 beat the forecasted $4.52 by an even more impressive 9.4%. The company also now increased its full-year revenue guidance and is forecasting a slight year-over-year (YoY) gain.  

On a YoY basis, revenue was up 10%. However, EPS was down about 4%, largely due to tariff impact. Still, investors have looked past that headwind and have pushed the stock within striking distance of $600.  

The reason for the bullish sentiment stems from the evidence that Caterpillar has evolved from an equipment manufacturer into a key player in the technology-integrated industrial market.   

CAT Stock: A Sum of Its Parts Story  

The bull case for Caterpillar is not just about its iconic yellow earthmovers and bulldozers. If you’re a CAT stock shareholder, you know about the company’s expanding business verticals that encompasses both the “digital economy” and the “real economy.” 

• Construction Industries 

• Resource Industries  

• Energy & Transportation 

In the press release announcing its quarterly results, Caterpillar chief executive officer (CEO) remarked, “Solid performance from our team generated strong results this quarter, driven by resilient demand and focused execution across our three primary segments, … Our team’s continued discipline in a dynamic environment, coupled with a growing backlog, positions us for sustained momentum and long-term profitable growth.” 

Looking at each sector individually is important for putting the earnings report in context.  

Construction Industries 

Revenue was up about 7% year-over-year to $6.8 billion, over one-third of the company’s total revenue. This is not insignificant since this sector’s revenue was down by about the same percentage in the prior quarter. The company continues to see softness in residential construction. However, that’s being offset by what analysts have termed “stabilizing” in its commercial business. 

Resource Industries 

This area of the company focuses on the design, manufacturing, and support of machinery and solutions for mining, quarrying, and heavy material handling operations. It’s closely tied to commodity and mining cyclers. That means its performance has a strong correlation with demand for metals, minerals and aggregates.  

Revenue was down 4% YoY at $3.1 billion. However, the company did report higher sales from mining-related activities. Demand for precious metals, copper, and rare earth minerals is likely to be a catalyst for this business unit.  As is Caterpillar’s announcement that it will acquire RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, an Australian-based software company focused on mining software, simulation, and consulting solutions. 

Energy & Transportation 

This was the real star of the earnings report. Caterpillar has become a key player in providing power generation for data centers. That was evident in the division’s revenue of $8.4 billion, which was an increase of 17% from the prior year.  

With hyperscalers making significant capital expenditure commitments to data centers for the next five to 10 years, this business unit will continue to drive growth in Caterpillar even as its other business units, pick up steam in coming quarters.  

Earnings Headwinds Should Die Down for CAT Stock 

Earnings growth is the best predictor of stock price growth. So, it’s fair to be suspicious about the jump in CAT stock after the company’s earnings per share came in 4% lower on a year-over-year basis.  

The issue continues to be tariffs. In fact, Caterpillar reported that the net impact of tariffs came in near the top end of its prior guidance of between $500 million and $600 million. The company also raised its forecast for annual tariff costs to a range between $1.6 billion and $1.75 billion. The company’s prior guidance was for a range between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion.  

Yet the stock is moving higher. That’s likely because an earnings report looks backward. But the story for Caterpillar is just getting started.  

Strong Fundamentals Seal the Growth Case 

With its status as a dividend aristocrat (having increased its dividend for 30 consecutive years), Caterpillar has always been considered a strong value play for buy-and-hold investors.  

However, over any length of time, the total return in CAT stock also makes it an exceptional growth stock. The company’s strategic pivots into areas like mining and AI infrastructure will help take some of the cyclicality out of the stock and boost revenue in meaningful ways. 

That’s backed by a strong return on equity (ROE) of 48.95% and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 1.5%. Ideally, investors would like to see a slightly more attractive valuation. At 26x forward earnings, CAT stock trades at a premium to the S&P 500 and to its own historic numbers. However, the sharp move after earnings will likely lead to a pullback that may create a better entry point.