Since peaking at $498.83 in December, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) slipped to a recent low of $364.46, where the oversold stock is starting to pivot. Morgan Stanley says Tesla’s robotaxi rollout is the most important catalyst.
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The firm added that: “Superior robotaxi unit economics are supported by vertical integration and innovative Cybercab production – Tesla is changing the way cars are made.” He added that each mile driven by the robotaxi fleet will also help improve the AI model for FSD [Full-Self Driving].
Robotaxis Could Create a $2 Trillion Market Opportunity
The global robotaxi market is expected to grow from about $10.11 billion in 2025 to $18.27 billion this year and to about $2 trillion by 2034, according to Fortune Business Insights.
Boston Consulting Group adds that the global robotaxi fleet could grow to three million vehicles by 2035, best case, with China and the U.S. dominating a good deal of initial growth. All thanks to regulations and infrastructure advancements, with vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle technologies.
Tesla could be one of the best-positioned to dominate the market, says brokerage firm New Street Research. The firm also has a buy rating on the stock with a $600 price target, arguing that the company has three unique advantages over the competition: low unit costs, a flexible supply model, and an existing fleet.
Wedbush Also Sees a Big Year for Tesla
With an outperform rating and a $500 price target on Tesla, Wedbush managing director Dan Ives said on X, “We believe Tesla and Musk are heading into a very important chapter of their growth story as the AI Revolution takes hold and the Robotaxi opportunity is now a reality on the doorstep. Investors are starting to see through the near-term demand issues for Tesla and recognize that Tesla is in a pole position to be a clear leader in the autonomous market opportunity with Robotaxis set to scale to 30 to 35 cities in the US over the next year.”
He added, “We expect over the coming months an easing of the federal framework for autonomous with more power going to the federal regulators with states having less authority on the autonomous rules framework. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap by the middle of 2026 in a bull case scenario. The $1 trillion of AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story, and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for TSLA over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab…”
The Technical Case for TSLA Stock
TSLA stock remains in a clear intermediate downtrend after failing to hold its late-2025 highs near $480. The stock is trading well below its 50-day moving average (around $408), which is sloping downward. That’s a bearish signal. Recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows, with resistance forming near $400–$410. Support is being tested in the $360 area; a breakdown below this level could open the door to a move toward the low $340s.
Momentum indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. The RSI sits in the mid-30s, suggesting the stock is approaching oversold conditions but not yet at extreme levels that typically signal a reversal. Volume has been relatively steady, without a clear capitulation spike. For a bullish shift, TSLA would need to reclaim the 50-day moving average and push above $400 with conviction.
Tesla’s Robotaxi Moment Could Define the Next Decade
In short, the biggest factor investors should watch for Tesla in 2026 is whether it can successfully execute its robotaxi vision. The opportunity is enormous, with a multi-trillion-dollar market taking shape around autonomous mobility, and the company appears well-positioned to compete thanks to its vertical integration, AI capabilities, and growing installed base of vehicles.
However, this is still a “show me” story. Delivering a safe, scalable, and regulator-approved robotaxi network will be critical to turning bullish projections into reality. Any delays or setbacks could weigh on investor sentiment, particularly as competition in autonomous driving intensifies.
That said, if Tesla can prove its model works at scale, the upside could be transformative—not just for revenue growth, but for how the market values the company. In that scenario, robotaxis may not just be a catalyst—they could redefine Tesla’s entire investment narrative.
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