Fertilizer stocks sit at a unique intersection of agriculture, energy, and commodities. That makes them cyclical stocks in the basic materials sector. In early 2022, many stocks in this sector got a lift from a spike in global fertilizer prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
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However, those prices have since retreated and brought prices down to more normalized levels. That’s brought the valuation of several fertilizer stocks down to more attractive levels.
Basic materials stocks have been on fire in 2025, mostly, ok, almost totally due to the metals trade. Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum are reaching new highs. And industrial metals like copper are at the beginning of what is likely to be a multi-year supercycle.
But you shouldn’t ignore the tailwinds for fertilizer stocks. First, global food demand is rising at a time when farmers face the challenge of getting more yield from fewer acres. That will make fertilizer an essential commodity.
If you’re thinking like an investor, the time is right to consider which fertilizer stocks will offer value and sustainable growth in the coming agricultural upcycle. Here are three names to consider.
Scotts Miracle-Gro: A Turnaround Story That’s Starting to Blossom
The first name on this list of fertilizer stocks isn’t a conventional fertilizer producer. In fact, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (NYSE: SMG) fits more neatly into the consumer staples sector. The company is best known for its lawn and garden products. It also has exposure to hydroponics and cannabis cultivation through its Hawthorne business unit.
SMG stock has been difficult to own in the last five years with a negative total return of over 57% in that time. That includes a dividend that yields over 4.6%. The reason was too much inventory and too much debt from the gardening and cannabis booms of 2020 and 2021.
But Scotts is a different company today, and investors are taking note. The company’s fourth quarter and fiscal year (FY) 2025 earnings report shows improvements in gross margin and diluted earnings per share (EPS). The company is back to being profitable on a full-year basis and reaffirmed guidance for positive free cash flow in FY2026.
The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 74x is extremely expensive. However, estimates for the forward P/E ratio come in at around 16.5x, which is much closer to the sector average.
Mosaic: A Value Play Leveraged to Crop Prices
Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is one of the world’s largest producers of phosphate and potash. These are two of the key crop nutrients that have a direct influence on global food production.
MOS stock has also been a laggard in the last three years, delivering a negative total return of 47.5%. That’s because the company’s revenue and profits are intrinsically linked to agricultural commodity prices – namely corn, wheat, and soybeans. When these prices go up, farmers have to spend more on fertilizers to maximize yields.
However, Mosaic has shown tremendous resilience in maintaining a solid balance sheet. This has kept the company solidly profitable and continues to generate free cash flow.
At around 8x earnings, MOS stock has an attractive valuation that is in line with projections for 7.8% earnings growth in the next 12 months. Analysts give Mosaic stock a consensus price target of $35.15, which is a gain of over 35%.
CF Industries: The Cash-Rich Nitrogen Powerhouse
CF Industries (NYSE: CF) operates in a different part of the fertilizer value chain, specifically nitrogen-based fertilizers such as ammonia and urea. The company’s profitability depends heavily on natural gas prices, since gas is both a feedstock and an energy source in nitrogen production.
This convergence of agriculture and energy is key to understanding the bull case for CF stock. The United States has an abundance of low-cost natural gas, giving CF Industries a structural cost advantage over many of its global peers.
Despite normalized nitrogen prices in 2024–2025, CF has continued to generate strong cash flow. The company’s disciplined capital allocation strategy, including dividends, share repurchases, and strategic investments, has supported consistent shareholder returns. CF’s dividend yield is approximately 2%, but its buybacks effectively amplify the total yield.
CF also has an ESG angle that sets it apart from other fertilizer stocks. The company is investing heavily in low-carbon ammonia and hydrogen projects, aiming to play a future role in clean energy and carbon reduction. That positions CF as not just a cyclical commodity stock but a long-term participant in the energy transition.
At about 9x forward earnings, CF trades at a slight premium to Mosaic but with better margins and return on capital. For investors who want steady performance and capital efficiency, CF looks like the most balanced operator in the space.
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